Blue Jays vs Orioles Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 9 +100o / -120u | +145 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9 +100o / -120u | -175 |
Get ready for an AL East showdown between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles from Camden Yards in Baltimore. This Jays-Orioles game serves as the first half of a Monday’s doubleheader, with Zach Eflin making his Orioles debut against Yariel Rodriguez after being acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays before the MLB trade deadline.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles' bats have gone cold in the month of July, posting a 101 wRC+ this month, which ranks 22nd in baseball.
The only real difference in Baltimore’s profile from prior months and now is its suddenly-disappearing power. It ranks first in MLB in Isolated Power (.198) and SLG perhaps (.450.), but its ISO ranks 16th in July and SLG% is 21st.
How do the Orioles solve their offensive woes? A safe bet is their All-Star starter duo, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman returning to their All-Star forms. Henderson hasn’t been awful, but his 104 wRC+ in July is just slightly above league average, compared to his 162 wRC+ for the year.
On the other hand, Rutschman is batting .132 with a ghastly 42 wRC+ in July. Plus, Adley’s slugging percentage is .204 in his last 15 games, which is worse than his .234 OBP in that span.
Eflin faced the Blue Jays in his last start in different threads. His final start as a Tampa Bay Ray went 5 2/3 innings with six hits and four punch outs versus Toronto.
While Eflin isn’t a flashy pitcher, he’s the perfect fit for this Orioles rotation that needed a veteran arm behind the always reliable Corbin Burnes.
Eflin pitched 110 innings in 19 starts this year with a 4.09 ERA and an encouraging 3.66 FIP. The FIP being half a run lower than his ERA means Eflin should have positive regression in Baltimore.
Toronto Blue Jays
While the Orioles is looking to get on track, the Blue Jays offense is suddenly surging. All it took was the Rangers' lousy pitching staff to serve up three games with 6+ runs to the Blue Jays.
Even still, the Blue Jays’ July wRC+ is 95. That number ranks 26th in MLB and it accounts for the Jays' huge performances last weekend.
A large part of the scoring influx is thanks to Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who owns a 217 wRC+ since July 10th (14th best in MLB) and has popped 12 homers in his past 30 games. Vlad Jr has hushed many of his detractors who thought his 165 wRC+ season in 2022 was an anomaly. Right now, the Blue Jays prized slugger has a 145 wRC+ — which is the second-highest mark of his career.
I still don’t have much faith in the Blue Jays offense besides Guerrero, as the only other two hitters with wRC+’s above 105 since July 1st are George Springer (136) and Spencer Horowitz (116.) That’s not the profile of a great offensive team, and Eflin will look to expose the weak links in the Blue Jays lineup.
The Blue Jays will send 27-year-old rookie Yariel Rodriguez to the mound, as he’ll look to continue his stellar rookie campaign in Toronto. Rodriguez enters with a 3.60 ERA and 3.60 FIP (that’s not a typo!), securing the rare feat of having an even ERA and FIP. Rodriguez is a big-time strikeout pitcher, posting 9.45 K/9, but he walks 4.5 batters per nine.
Usually, that leads to fairly short outings from Rodriguez, and could put pressure on the Blue Jays inconsistent bullpen.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Blue Jays hit above their talent level this weekend. Don’t let a stunning three game sample change your opinion on one of the most disappointing offenses in MLB.
Plus, it’s only a matter of time until the Orioles start hitting again. The track records of Henderson and Rutschman lead me to believe they’ll get on track soon.
For my play this one, I’m looking to back the Orioles run line -1.5, as Eflin is a more consistent and proven pitcher than Rodriguez, and the Orioles lineup advantage should be the ultimate deciding factor in the final result.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 at +105 (Caesars)
