Blue Jays vs Marlins Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -136 | 7.5 -104 / -118 | -1.5 +126 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 7.5 -104 / -118 | +1.5 -152 |
Kevin Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for a few years now. On Wednesday, he'll be facing the Miami Marlins, who are in second place in the National League East.
Sandy Alcántara will pitch for the Marlins and although he won the Cy Young Award last season, he hardly looks like the same pitcher this year. He's been inconsistent all year and it's hard to trust him against an offense as potent as Toronto's.
Since both teams have had similar results against right-handed pitching, it's hard to not back the Blue Jays' bats in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays
Gausman owns a 3.01 ERA against a 3.60 xERA, so he will have some negative regression, but it won't be much. He also owns a sub-3.00 ERA in June and given his 32.2% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate, it's hard to envision his performance deviating from its current path.
Kevin Gausman, 97mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/MrHPeLnVw8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 17, 2023
The Blue Jays own a 105 wRC+ in June off of righties. Brandon Belt and Alejandro Kirk are on the Injured List, but Toronto still has six active hitters with a xwOBA above .330 this season. That's enough to attack Alcántara.
In relief, the Blue Jays own a June xFIP of 3.53. This is about as stellar of a relief corps as a team can have and since Gausman can pitch deep into games, Toronto should have no issue shutting the door on Miami.
Miami Marlins
Alcántara has a 4.97 ERA against a 4.23 xERA, so he will get better. However, his Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate have increased since last season. His strikeout rate is below 20% and his walk rate increased from 5.6% last season to 7.3% this year. In June, he's allowed five earned runs in two of three starts — and those were against the Oakland A’s and Washington Nationals.
However, the Marlins have hit about the same as the Blue Jays in June. Miami has a 104 wRC+ and a .737 OPS, so the difference is negligible for the time being. However, on the season, Miami only has three bats with a xwOBA above .330.
Miami does have a 3.29 xFIP and its bullpen compares favorably to Toronto's. However, if Alcántara has some trouble, Miami's bullpen may need to get more outs than normal in this contest.
Blue Jays vs Marlins Betting Pick
Gausman is a better pitcher than Alcántara this season, though the odds seem like they're still factoring in the 2022 version of Miami's right-hander. Given the Blue Jays' propensity to hammer righties, taking their team total over is the correct bet in this game. Betting their moneyline isn't necessarily a bad idea, either.
Take Toronto’s team total from 3.5 (-120), and play it to 4.5 (-120).
Pick: Blue Jays Over 3.5 Runs |
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