We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Best Baseball Bets Today: Betting On Minor League, Triple-A Games
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
But since we have some in-season data, it’s time to start firing.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp vs. Norfolk Tides
Friday, 6:35 PM ET
Betting on Jacksonville couldn’t be going any better. The Jumbo Shrimp are 3-0 this week, with every moneyline landing in the -105 to -120 range.
That's why you read the column, folks!
I’m hoping to get -130 or better with the Shrimp on Friday, especially with stud starting pitcher Robby Snelling taking the mound — he’s Jacksonville’s best pitcher by a wide margin.
After a tough first inning against Sugar Land, Snelling settled in and racked up seven strikeouts across four innings.
Snelling is likely to pitch on Friday, while Norfolk will likely counter with Nestor German. German is solid in his own regard, so he’ll hopefully keep the betting line in check.
Pick: Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (+110, bet365)
Rochester Red Wings vs. Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Friday, 6:08 PM ET
Rochester rested its two best hitters on Thursday, with Dylan Crews and Abimelec Ortiz taking the day off.
Therefore, I’m partial to thinking we get Rochester’s best lineup on Friday.
I also expect Luis Perales to pitch, a Red Wings arm I’m willing to back.
Meanwhile, Lehigh Valley hasn’t been hitting, so I’m more than willing to fade the IronPigs, who I think are very fortunate to be 8-4. They’ve been winning without their best player, Aiden Miller, who went down with a back injury in Spring Training.
The Pigs’ roster is mostly placeholders right now, as the Phillies don’t need any of those guys, and their better prospects haven’t reached the Triple-A level yet.
Meanwhile, the Nationals’ new front office thinks they’ve been rushing guys to the big leagues, so Rochester is currently loaded with guys who could play at the higher level but will need to really “prove it” before getting called back up.
As a result, Rochester will be one of the better teams in this league for the first half of the season.
Pick: Rochester Red Wings ML (+110, bet365)
Albuquerque Isotopes vs. El Paso Chihuahuas
Friday, 8:35 PM ET
I played the Isotopes on Wednesday, and I have a feeling I’ll be backing them again this weekend.
AJ Preller is a fantastic general manager — I love his win-now mentality. But he will gut the farm system to accomplish his goals. San Diego’s farm system is reloading, and the good ones are far away from Triple-A. El Paso likely ends up near the bottom of the Pacific Coast League as a result.
Colorado’s organization finally has some adults in the room making wise, analytically-friendly decisions — that’s already paying off at the big-league level. But I think that also trickles down to Albuquerque.
I also think you see Charlie Condon continue his breakout.
Pitching-wise, we should see Gabriel Hughes start for the Isotopes on Friday, while Sean Sullivan could make his second start of the week on Sunday.
I don’t expect Albuquerque to be more than -110 on the road behind Hughes or Sullivan (both of whom should be better than whoever El Paso counters with), so I’m hopeful we’ll get to back the ‘Topes all weekend long.
Pick: Albuquerque Isotopes ML (-105, bet365)
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays
- Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (-130 or Better, @ Norfolk Tides)
- Rochester Red Wings ML (-105 or Better, @ Lehigh Valley IronPigs)
- Albuquerque Isotopes ML (-110 or Better, @ El Paso Chihuahuas)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
