The Washington Nationals (22-23) host the Baltimore Orioles (20-25) on May 16, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Orioles are -108 on the moneyline and are favored by -1.5 (+146) on the run line. The Nationals are also -108 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-178) on the run line. The total is set at 10 runs (-105 / -115).
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Nationals Prediction, Pick
- Orioles vs Nationals Pick: Orioles ML (-110)
My Orioles vs Nationals best bet is on Baltimore to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Nationals Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 10 -105o / -115u | -108 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 10 -105o / -115u | -108 |
- Orioles vs Nationals moneyline: Orioles -108, Nationals -108
- Orioles vs Nationals over/under: 10 (-105o / -115u)
- Orioles vs Nationals spread: Orioles -1.5 (+146), Nationals +1.5 (-178)
Orioles vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| RHP Chris Bassitt (BAL) | Stat | RHP Cade Cavalli (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 5.21 / 5.02 | ERA / xERA | 4.02 / 4.14 |
| 4.65 / 5.07 | FIP / xFIP | 3.17 / 4.35 |
| 4.5 | K-BB% | 13.7 |
| 46.5 | GB% | 44.2 |
| .357 | BABIP | .378 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 101 | Location+ | 91 |
Orioles vs Nationals Moneyline Pick for Today's Game
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The Orioles will rely on veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt in game two against the Nationals.
It's been a mixed bag for the veteran righty. He owns a 5.21 ERA, and his peripherals are also poor, posting a 5.03 ERA and a 4.98 FIP. Two of his last three outings inspire confidence that he could right the ship. He held the Athletics to one run in six innings and Houston to one run in 6 2/3 innings.
Bassitt is a soft-tosser, but all of his pitches move. That explains his elite 2.3% barrel rate and 87% average exit velocity.
Entering the year, everyone had questions about the Orioles rotation. Those questions are fair and a real problem.
But what about their offense?
In May, the Orioles entered Friday's game with a 78 wRC+ for the month — the fourth worst in the league. They have a horrible combination of striking out 25% of the time and hitting just seven homers in 14 games (26th). It's not just a homer issue but a full-blown power outage, as their .110 ISO ranks only above the Rays' and Brewers' — both of which don't want to hit for power.
Gunnar Henderson has been one of the sport's worst players in May, hitting .154 with a .170 and a -8 wRC+. A small glimmer of hope comes in the form of young bats Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers, who each have a wRC+ above 150 this month.
Meanwhile, Pete Alonso has tallied four of the O's seven homers this month. He could add another en route to an Orioles win.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
The Nationals will send Cade Cavalli to the mound to steal a series victory. He owns a dazzling 4.02 ERA with a 4.15 xERA and 3.18 FIP.
The crazy thing about Cavalli? His WHIP is 1.59. More than a runner is reaching base per inning against Cavalli, yet the underlying numbers love him. He walks 4.02 BB/9, but his HR/9 is an insanely low 0.22.
In other words, Cavalli has allowed one homer in 40 1/3 innings. Not allowing homers is a cheat code to maintain a low FIP. We'll see if Cavalli can have a strong FIP if the homer numbers begin to change.
Washington has been one of the best offensive teams in MLB this month, as it ranks fifth with a 115 wRC+. The Nationals also boast a .212 ISO — the best in the league.
You'd expect James Wood or CJ Abrams to be the best player during this stretch, right? Well, it's actually Daylen Lile, who has a 150 wRC+ with three homers.
Make no mistake, Abrams and Wood will usually dictate if the Nationals' offense performs well or not; it just helps to have Lile fill the gap.
I wouldn't classify Washington as "home run or bust" since ISO includes more than just homers. However, this is a hot stretch for an offense I don't view as better than a mid-tier offense in MLB.
Orioles vs Nationals Pick, Betting Analysis
Bassitt is the perfect guy to flummox this Washington offense. First of all, it struggled in the past two games, which shows how quickly things can change in this sport.
Secondly, Bassitt gives up just 0.71 HR/9. He can limit this Nationals offense in this matchup.
Pick: Orioles ML (-110, BetMGM)
