The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles on July 20, 2025. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN2 and MLB.TV.
The final game of this series will feature a pitching matchup between the Orioles' Trevor Rogers and the Rays' Ryan Pepiot.
Find my Orioles vs Rays prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Orioles vs Rays Prediction
- Orioles vs Rays Pick: Under 9 (-123 · DraftKings)
My Rays vs. Orioles best bet is on both teams to go under the total in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Rays Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 9 101o / -123u | +104 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -199 | 9 101o / -123u | -127 |
Orioles vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Trevor Rogers (BAL) | Stat | RHP Ryan Pepiot (TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 1.53 / 2.95 | ERA / xERA | 3.38 / 4.04 |
| 2.58 / 3.61 | FIP / xFIP | 4.31 / 3.92 |
| 0.82 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 16.4 | K-BB% | 15.8 |
| 48.4 | GB% | 39.3 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 103 | Location+ | 100 |
Orioles vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
The Orioles haven't been that productive this season. On top of that, they are going through a slump, scoring only five total runs in their past four games, with three of those coming yesterday in a 4-3 defeat.
Things might not get better today against Rays starter Ryan Pepiot, who has a 2.92 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his last 15 starts, and a 3.13 ERA at home.
The Tampa Bay offense ranks 12th among all MLB teams in wRC+ but drops to 20th against left-handed pitchers like Trevor Rogers.
Rogers has been terrific for the Orioles with a 1.53 ERA and a fantastic 0.82 WHIP in his six starts so far this season. He has allowed only six hits and one run in his last two starts, with 13 1/3 innings pitched.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the under.
Orioles vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
This system targets unders in regular-season MLB games where softer home starting pitchers — low strikeout rates and moderate WHIP —are on the mound in Games 3 or 4 of a series.
By this point in the series, hitters have seen multiple arms, and scouting reports are sharper, yet scoring remains muted when the matchup lacks overpowering velocity and winds remain neutral.
The setup avoids exaggerated run environments by filtering out strong directional wind influence, keeping offensive surges in check.
With the home team in the middle of the season grind, winning at a modest clip, the market may overlook how often these quiet conditions lead to slower-paced, low-scoring outcomes.
With the system and pitching matchup at play, we'll take the under here.
Pick: Under 9 (-123 · DraftKings)
