Two east coast playoff contenders will kick off a three-game series tonight in the Big Apple as the New York Mets host the Baltimore Orioles.
Baltimore has surged to 73-52, and the Orioles are now tied for the AL East lead and the best record in the American League with the Yankees. They hold a seven-game lead over the last wild card spot and likely will be a playoff team, but they will want to keep contending for that top seed in the AL.
At this point in the season, the Mets are likely out of the division race as they trail the Phillies by nine games. New York (64-60) is not in a playoff spot at the moment, but they are in contention, sitting just two games out of the final wild card slot.
The Mets are -130 favorites on the moneyline tonight at home with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Let’s dive into my Orioles vs. Mets prediction.
Orioles vs. Mets Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 8.5 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -176 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-136 | 8.5 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +146 |
Orioles vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2-11 | W-L | 7-1 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 4.89 / 5.17 | ERA /xERA | 3.04 / 5.31 |
| 4.47 / 4.70 | FIP / xFIP | 4.37 / 4.53 |
| 1.57 | WHIP | 1.39 |
| 7.2% | K-BB% | 7.1% |
| 46.3% | GB% | 53.3% |
| 84 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 100 | Location+ | 96 |
Cody Goggin’s Orioles vs Mets Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Tough Night for a Lefty
Recently acquired Trevor Rogers will take the ball for the Orioles tonight. Acquired from Miami at the trade deadline, the lefty has a 4.89 ERA with a 5.17 xERA on the season. Through three starts with the Orioles, he has a 7.53 ERA over 14.1 IP and a FIP of 4.77.
Rogers has not been impressive this season, posting a 1.57 WHIP and not striking out anyone or limiting hard contact. Rogers has just a 12th percentile strikeout rate and a 26th percentile walk rate. He also ranks in the 12th percentile in hard hit rate, 37th percentile in barrel rate, and ninth percentile in average exit velocity. His one saving grace has been that he has generated a ground ball on 46.5% of his batted balls, which ranks in the 71st percentile.
Baltimore has been one of the best offenses in the entire league this season, ranking 2nd in wRC+. The Orioles are also second in wOBA, first in SLG, and first in ISO. They are 11th in strikeout rate and 22nd in walk rate, as most of their production just comes from their batted balls.
Baltimore ranks 28th in ground ball rate this season overall. The Orioles lead the league in hard hit rate, rank third in barrel rate, and rank third in average exit velocity.
The Orioles will not have any qualms about facing a left-handed starter tonight either. They rank second in wRC+ and second in wOBA against lefties. Baltimore leads the league with an absurd.450 SLG against left-handers this season as well.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Offense Teed up Tonight
David Peterson will start for New York today. The 28-year-old lefty has an impressive 3.04 ERA this season, but his xERA is 5.31 and his SIERA is 4.76. Peterson has been aided by his 81.8% strand rate and 10.2% HR/FB ratio.
Peterson’s profile is similar to that of Rogers in that he ranks in the 16th percentile in strikeout rate and 17th percentile in walk rate. He also has struggled with allowing quality contact, ranking in the 12th percentile in hard hit rate, 46th percentile in barrel rate, and 20th percentile in average exit velocity.
Peterson has gotten by with a high ground ball rate this year, as his 53.3% ground ball rate ranks in the 91st percentile. He posted a 54.6% ground ball rate over 111 innings this season so this could be sustainable, but his ERA last season was still 5.03, which is more in line with where his expected metrics point this season as well.
The Mets have been one of the better units in the National League on offense this season. They rank fifth in wRC+, ninth in wOBA, ninth in SLG, and eighth in OBP. They walk at the 11th-best rate and strike out just a bit below average.
New York ranks 18th in ground ball rate this season, which could come into play against Trevor Rogers today. They are also sixth in hard hit rate, seventh in barrel rate, and seventh in average exit velocity allowed.
Hitting left-handed pitching has been a strength for the Mets this season. They have a wRC+ of 119 against lefties, which is the third-best mark in the big leagues. They are fifth in wOBA, third in SLG, and crucially, have the third-lowest ground ball rate against southpaws on the year.
Orioles vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
This should make for a crazy matchup as both sides largely mirror each other. Both of these left-handed pitchers are ground ball specialists who don’t strike out anyone, allow hard contact, and allow walks at an above-average rate. Their opponents are each two of the best offenses in the league that mostly hit the ball hard and in the air.
If you can see where I’m going with this, I love both of the offenses in this matchup. The total for the first five innings is set at 4.5, and I think we could see a lot of scoring between these two offenses tonight.
My favorite bet on this game is Over 4.5 runs in the first five innings at -130, but I would also entertain the Over 5.5 alternate line at +120.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 Total Runs (-130 at DraftKings, bet to -145)
Moneyline
It’s tough to pick a side in a matchup with two teams that are this close in talent, but I’ll lean toward the Orioles, who present a good value here to me. At +110 on the moneyline, I’ll back the team that has the better record this season and potentially the best offense in the league in what should be a relatively equal pitching matchup.
The Orioles are 36-24 straight up on the road this season as compared to 37-28 at home.
Run Line (Spread)
Overall I would stay away from the spread in this game as I believe it will be a close matchup. I don’t want to rely on the Mets to win by multiple runs despite attractive plus money, and I also don’t want to lay -192 on the Orioles at +1.5. Due to the amount of scoring I think this game could have, I’d like to stay away from the run line in general at these prices.
Over/Under
Mets games are 63-57-4 to the over this season while Baltimore is 67-47-11 to the over. Citi Field overs are 33-32
As mentioned above, I think this game could go well over the total. I like focusing on the F5 line more with the starting pitchers being known, but these offenses still do lend themselves to a potential easy over.
