The Baltimore Orioles (84-65) and Detroit Tigers (76-73) play the series finale of their three-game series on Sunday afternoon at Comerica Park. First pitch for the first MLB game of the Roberto Clemente Day slate is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET; the contest will be broadcast on MASN 2 and Bally Sports Detroit.
The Orioles enter Sunday two games behind the New York Yankees (86-63) for first place in the AL East and two games ahead of the Kansas City Royals (82-67) for the first AL wild-card spot. The Tigers remain a threat for the third wild-card spot, just 2 1/2 games behind the Minnesota Twins (78-70).
Find a head-to-head breakdown of the Sunday pitching matchup — which features Cade Povich and Keider Montero — and my Orioles vs Tigers prediction for Sunday, September 15, below.
Orioles at Tigers Prediction
- Orioles-Tigers picks: Orioles F5 ML (-120 | Play to -140)
My Orioles-Tigers best bet is on the Orioles F5, where I see value at -120. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +145 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -175 |
- Orioles-Tigers Moneyline: Orioles -115 | Tigers -105
- Orioles-Tigers Over/Under: 8.5 total runs (-120o / +100u)
- Orioles-Tigers Spread: Orioles -1.5 (+145) | Tigers +1.5 (-175)
Orioles-Tigers Probable Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cade Povich (BAL) | Stat | RHP Keider Montero (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-8 | W-L | 5-6 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 5.91 / 4.36 | ERA /xERA | 4.88 / 4.76 |
| 5.23 / 5.22 | FIP / xFIP | 4.85 / 4.28 |
| 1.59 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 8.2% | K-BB% | 11.4% |
| 38% | GB% | 40.5% |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 97 | Location+ | 100 |
Sean Paul’s Orioles vs Tigers Preview
Orioles Betting Preview: Spotty Rookie Campaign for Cade Povich
Saturday was a flawless day for Baltimore. The Orioles picked up a game in the AL East race on the Yankees as Gerrit Cole floundered in New York's loss while Corbin Burnes diced up the Tigers in Detroit.
Coming into the year, the Orioles' top pitching prospect, Cade Povich, figured to play a pivotal piece of their hopeful playoff run. It’s been very hit-or-miss in Povich’s rookie year, however, as he's posted a 5.93 ERA with a 5.23 FIP, but he's shown occasional flashes of promise.
The biggest problems for Povich are common issues for young pitchers — home runs and walks. Povich has a 1.55 HR/9 and a 3.9 BB/9, compared to a mediocre 7.31 K/9.
I'm optimistic about this matchup for Povich despite the ugly numbers. Why? Because it's hard to hit homers in Comerica Park, as it ranks 10th in home runs among MLB ballparks and ranks eighth in Statcast park factors. In most environments, Povich is probably a fade candidate, but I like this spot for him.
On offense, the Orioles feature a top-heavy attack. They have only three hitters with a wRC+ above 100 in September — Gunnar Henderson and Cedric Mullins at over 200, and Anthony Santander at 137. That's a pretty strong trio, but the other six hitters must figure things out. If not, opposing pitchers can pitch safely against the top of the order and attack the cold hitters.
Adley Rutschman, Ryan O'Hearn, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holiday each having a wRC+ below 50 for half of a month isn't exactly a winning formula.
Tigers Betting Preview: Tigers Have No Bite
Opposing Povich is another struggling rookie, Keider Montero.
It hasn't been a smooth sailing rookie campaign for Montero, who enters Sunday with a 4.88 ERA and a 4.85 FIP. If you close your eyes and compare Montero's peripherals to Povich's, they don't look much different. Montero also has a 7 K/9, a slightly better 2.82 BB/9 and a 1.52 HR/9.
My main concern about the Tigers offense in this game stems from their lack of success against southpaws. They rank 23rd in MLB with a 93 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, with an 8% BB rate and 23% K rate. You can point at the Tigers' lineup construction as the culprit for the ineffectiveness versus lefties.
The Tigers will sit arguably their best hitter, Kerry Carpenter, for Andy Ibanez, who fills the opposite end of the platoon. But he's not nearly as scary as Carpenter is with his power profile.
Another player who struggles against lefties is Riley Greene, who has a wRC+ over 50 points lower against left-handers. It could be a struggle against Povich, so working his pitch count to get the lefty out of the game could be an important factor for the Tigers.
The key for Detroit against Povich is production from their lefty mashers: Matt Vierling, Spencer Torkelson and Ibanez.
Orioles-Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis: First Five Innings (F5)
I don't know if I trust the Orioles for the full game while the Tigers struggled in their last two games against left-handers. The Tigers allowed Martin Perez — in the year 2024 — to carve through their lineup for six shutout innings before getting to the Padres bullpen late.
I'll avoid the late-game stress by grabbing Baltimore in the first five innings.
Pick: Orioles F5 ML -120 (play to -140)
Moneyline
My lean is the Orioles' full game moneyline here at -108. They are just the better team.
I don't think we consider the Tigers' 10-1 record against the White Sox when looking at Detroit's win-loss record. Are they a bad team? Nah, but I don't think Detroit should sniff the playoffs.
Lean: Orioles ML (-108)
Run Line (Spread)
No play here for me. I don't trust either offense enough in this spot.
Over/Under
The total has gone way under in the first two games. It wasn't even close.
The Orioles almost allowed Brent Hurter and a slew of Tigers relievers to no-hit them. It's hard to pass on an 8.5-run total between two poor pitches like Povich and Montero, so I'll ride the over here.
Lean: Over 8.5
Orioles-Tigers Betting Trends
- 67% of the bets and 70% of the money are on the Orioles moneyline.
- 72% of the bets and 74% of the money are on the over.
- 95% of the bets and 53% of the money are on the Orioles to cover the run line.
Orioles Betting Trends
- The Orioles are 2-3 in their past five games
- The Orioles 42-32 on the road
- The Orioles are 41-28-4 to the over this year
- The Orioles are 40-33 against the spread in road games
Tigers Betting Trends
- The Tigers are 3-2 in their past five games
- The Tigers are 3-2 to the over in their past five games
- The Tigers are 38-36 at home this year
- The Tigers are 35-37-1 in favor of the under
Orioles at Tigers Weather Forecast: Clear Skies
