The Atlanta Braves (63-56) and San Francisco Giants (61-61) will face off on Wednesday night in the third game of a four-game series at Oracle Park, and I'm here with my Braves vs Giants prediction for tonight. Both games so far this series have gone to extra innings, with the Braves winning each by one run.
Both the Braves and Giants are in the thick of NL wild-card race. The Braves have regained control of the final wild-card spot and are also six games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East entering Wednesday. The Giants are 3 1/2 games behind the Braves and must also leapfrog the New York Mets to get into playoff contention.
Of note for Wednesday night: The Braves activated outfielder Michael Harris from the injured list. The 2022 NL Rookie of the Year winner last played in a big-league game on June 14 before suffering a left hamstring strain.
The latest MLB odds have the Giants as -132 moneyline favorites despite dropping the first two games of the series. The over/under is set at 7.5 (-120o / -102u) as Grant Holmes takes on left-hander Robbie Ray. You can find my preview and Braves vs Giants predictions and picks below.
Braves vs Giants Prediction
- Bet the Braves F5 Over 1.5 Runs
Braves vs Giants Odds
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+112 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | +1.5 -200 |
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-132 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | -1.5 +164 |
Probable Starting Pitchers for Braves at Giants
| RHP Grant Holmes (ATL) | Stat | LHP Robbie Ray (SF) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 3.79 / 3.20 | ERA /xERA | 3.98 / 3.68 |
| 2.84 / 3.32 | FIP / xFIP | 5.24 / 3.68 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 20.9% | K-BB% | 22.6% |
| 42.6% | GB% | 29.5% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 101 | Location+ | 95 |
Cody Goggin's Braves vs Giants Preview
Braves Betting Preview: Offense Fading Out
Grant Holmes gets the start for the Braves tonight. The 2014 first-round pick was finally able to make it to the MLB this season at age 28 after bouncing around in the minors for a decade.
Holmes has appeared in 13 games but only started three, posting a 3.79 ERA and a 3.20 xERA over 38 innings.
His last three outings have been his three career starts. He's been able to complete five innings in two of these but hasn't gone any deeper. Holmes has a 86th-percentile whiff rate and a 79th-percentile strikeout rate, despite only having a 95 Stuff+.
Holmes has avoided walking batters, ranking in the 82nd percentile in walk rate. He also ranks in the 56th percentile in hard-hit rate, 66th percentile in barrel rate and 47th percentile in average exit velocity.
The Braves' offense is around average on the year and has faded down the stretch, as Atlanta's been dealing with a multitude of injuries.
The Braves currently rank 16th in wRC+ and 14th in wOBA. They're seventh in ISO and 12th in SLG as they have power, but they also have the fourth-highest strikeout rate and 10th-lowest walk rate, showing little discipline at the plate.
Atlanta hits the ball extremely hard when it does make contact. The Braves rank second in hard-hit rate, second in barrel rate and first in exit velocity. They have the seventh-lowest ground-ball rate and pull the ball at a higher rate than anyone else.
The Braves have been solid against left-handers this season, ranking 12th in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA against southpaws. They do still strike out 24.4% of the time against lefties, which will be something to monitor tonight.
Giants Betting Preview: What to Make of Robbie Ray?
Robbie Ray will take the mound for the Giants tonight. The left-hander underwent Tommy John in May 2023 and just returned to the MLB in July.
In a small sample since returning, Ray has a 3.98 ERA and 3.68 xERA over 20.1 innings pitched with 28 strikeouts.
Ray largely looks like the same guy that we've grown accustomed to over the years. He has a Stuff+ of 106 and a 33.3% strikeout rate.
On the other end of the spectrum, he still has his typical control issues, with a 10.7% walk rate and a 95 Location+. His fastball velocity is already averaging 94.5 mph, which is higher than the last two seasons and is more in line with his 2021 Cy Young campaign.
Ray’s batted ball metrics are more of a mixed bag. He has a great hard-hit rate and average exit velocity but a poor barrel rate and ground-ball rate.
Based on his past metrics, I’d expect the barrel rate and ground-ball rate to be more in line with what to expect from him going forward, as he typically doesn’t have great contact quality metrics.
The Giants rank 12th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA this season. They're 18th in SLG and 17th in ISO with the 10th-best walk rate and a strikeout rate just barely above league average.
San Francisco ranks 14th in hard-hit rate, 10th in barrel rate and 12th in exit velocity. It also has the fifth-lowest ground-ball rate and 11th-highest pull rate as they're typically looking to generate power by pulling fly balls.
Braves vs Giants Prediction & Analysis
I'm highly confused over what to expect when Ray faces off against the Braves tonight.
On one hand I would expect him to rack up plenty of strikeouts, as they have a ton of swing-and-miss in their lineup. But on the other hand, the Braves hit the ball extraordinary hard, something Ray has historically struggled at preventing.
Despite the high probability of the Braves striking out, I think that they'll be able to make quality contact against Ray.
For this reason, my favorite bet on this matchup is the Braves to score over 1.5 runs in the first five innings at -135.
Pick: Braves F5 Over 1.5 Runs (-135 at DraftKings, Play to -145)
Moneyline
I don’t have a preference on a side for this game. Ray is the better pitcher, in my opinion, but he typically isn’t consistent and could be prone to being hit hard by the Braves.
On the other side, Holmes has made very few starts at the MLB level. While the Giants’ offense isn’t outstanding, it would be good enough to score a few runs against the rookie.
I wouldn’t be comfortable taking either side on the moneyline in this game and will be staying away.
Run Line (Spread)
The Giants are 29-32 ATS at home this year, but the Braves are 27-34 ATS on the road. Both of these teams have been bad ATS this season as the Giants are 57-65 and the Braves are 50-69 ATS.
My thoughts on the moneyline apply to the run line in this game, as well. I can’t justify laying heavy negative odds with the underdog or betting that the other team will win by multiple runs.
If I were to take a side, I would lean towards the Braves -1.5 at +160 due to their offense, but I would exercise caution and likely not play this at all.
Over/Under
This season Oracle Park game overs are 27-33-1 while Atlanta overs at 24-32-5 on the road.
However, this total being set at just 7.5 runs seems a tad low. Both of these offenses are at least average and there's a ton of uncertainty with each of these pitchers.
I think there's a decent chance that we could see this game go over 7.5 runs, so I would lean in that direction.
