The Atlanta Braves' (89-73) season is on the line on Wednesday night at Petco Park, where they'll face the San Diego Padres (93-69) in Game 2 of this NL Wild Card Series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:38 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Find my Braves vs Padres prediction and pick for Wednesday, October 2, below.
Braves vs Padres Prediction
- Braves vs Padres pick: First 5 Under 3.5 (-110 | Play to -125)
My Padres vs Braves best bet for Wild Card Game 2 is on First Five Innings Total Under 3.5 Runs, where I see value at -110. The best line is available at DraftKings — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Padres Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 6.5 -125 / +105 | +1.5 -205 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-125 | 6.5 -125 / +105 | -1.5 +170 |
Braves vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (ATL) | Stat | RHP Joe Musgrove (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-10 | W-L | 6-5 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.25 / 3.64 | ERA /xERA | 3.88 / 4.34 |
| 3.33 /3.33 | FIP / xFIP | 3.96 / 3.74 |
| 1.16 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 15.3% | K-BB% | 19% |
| 58.8% | GB% | 41.3% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 124 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Justin Perri’s Braves vs Padres Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Touhh Spot for Fried
The Atlanta Braves are running out of time, but that's nothing new for this team.
The fifth-seeded Braves secured their place in the playoffs on Monday, the day after the regular season was scheduled to end, in a makeup double-header against the Mets. They won the second game of the two to secure their spot, meaning their starters were out there for two contests on Monday, flew cross country from Atlanta to San Diego and had to face Micheal King the next night.
We shouldn't be too surprised it went badly, and that King racked up 12 strike outs, but now the Braves must win back to back games in enemy territory or their season is done.
To be fair to this organization, most thought the season was done long ago when reigning NL MVP, Ronald Acuna went down with a torn ACL while running the bases in the early goings of the year. Then Spencer Strider tore his UCL and needed surgery, and Austin Riley is also out for the year while Ozzie Albies missed multiple months, too.
It's been rough, so adversity isn't something this team is new to. But can they do the unthinkable and bounce back to beat the Padres in two straight? It starts tonight with Max Fried.
Fried has been on point in his last two appearances; he blanked the Royals for 8.2 innings with nine strikeouts and just three hits allowed most recently, and then kept the Marlins to just two runs (one earned) over 6 innings before that – earning wins in both.
Prior to these positive outings, though, Fried had been a bit shaky; going 2-7 with a 4.38 ERA / 1.37 WHIP in the 11 games since the start of July. So which Fried are we going to get? The one we just saw, who has the propensity to shut down a playoff level opponent, or will it be the one who gave up almost three runs every six innings in the two months before?
I tend to think it'll be somewhere in the middle, as Atlanta won't have any room to give Fried a long leash. So there could be some merit to some unders on player props for the Braves starter and, if I had to make a guess… I'd say he'll be mostly on point, we'll see two runs allowed across something like 5.2 innings and he'll get pulled when the second run scores thanks to a lead off walk he gave out earlier in the frame. Tale as old as time.
Looking at the Braves hitting, it's been lead by Micheal Harris II, Matt Olson and Jorge Soler over the last month, and after getting shut out last night in the bad travel spot, the pressure will be on these big bats to bring some pop today in a bit of a more regular scenario. Harris has hit eight home runs in the last 26 games, scoring 21 runs, and Olson has 21 RBI in that span.
MVP candidate Marcell Ozuna is also a candidate to do some damage today, as he is the Braves best hitter against right handed pitchers like Musgrove.
Atlanta is a solid 43-38 as a road team this season, but is just 13-18 on the year when made the underdog, as they are again today.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Padres Have Momentum
Do not let the Wild Card status fool you, San Diego has built an elite roster that is a legitimate contender for the World Series this season. With 93 wins on the year, the Padres were only surpassed by the Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies, and that's with superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. only playing 102 regular season games due to injury.
The composition of this team is well rounded and effective. They boast arguably one of the most unique and talented hitters in baseball, Luis Arraez, at the top of their line up, follow it up with sluggers like Tatis and Manny Machado, and then finish it off with the resurgent Jurrikson Profar and Rookie of the Year candidate Jackson Merrill. Oh, yeah, and then their rotation is Dylan Cease, Micheal King and Joe Musgrove… they're as formidable as it gets when healthy, and that could possibly be the best rotation in the playoffs.
Tonight, it'll be Musgrove's turn to spin the seams, as his 124 Stuff+ will be on display in a battle that could send the Padres to Los Angeles for a clash against their division rival in the two game minimum. Musgrove features an elite walk rate of 5.6% and while his fastball velocity is a bit average, his ability to both locate his pitches and earn whiffs makes him a tough test for any offense.
Musgrove's form of late has been stellar, in his nine starts since returning from the injured list he has pitched to a 2.15 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 29% strikeout rate in 50.1 IP, and that's including a six run blow up against the giants in August. He's shut out opponents five times in those nine appearances. This is the type of arm you want on the mound to help eliminate an opponent.
The arsenal from the Padres righty is part of what makes him so difficult to face. He then paints the zone with a trio of his cutter, slider and sweeper that all rank in the 90th percentile or higher for called strike rate. Hitters just don't know what to do with what they're seeing, and often are forced to take pitches that start outside the zone and end in it. Fun to watch, tough to hit.
He does throw a slower fastball that he keeps high, out of the zone and earns plenty of swinging strikes on, but a 10% mistake rate on the pitch and a high HR/FB% means if there's an issue for Musgrove, it's likely happening on this pitch.
The hitting from San Diego has been some of the best in baseball of late, they're fourth in wRC+ since the all star break at 117 (17% above the adjusted MLB average of 100) and have maintained a 113 wRC+ in September/October so far, as well. Today's production against Fried will likely come from Manny Machado and Jurrickson Profar, who have been some of the better hitters against left handed pitching on the team on the year.
The Padres has gone 45-35 in their home games this season, while doing even better when made the favorite at a record of 58-42.
Braves vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
There's been about ten cents of movement to -130 since this line opened at -120 for the Padres. You can still find a better price than the consensus by shopping but a move towards the home team here isn't too surprising to me.
I have the Padres as the better team on both sides of the ball again tonight, and while the rest and travel disadvantage might not be as prominent, the Padres are still in a better spot.
My play, though I thought about playing the Padres ML, and still may add it later, I think the first five innings under is the place to go.
Musgrove has been elite, Fried is in good shape, and even if we get a bit worse than that from him, Atlanta will pull him quickly if things start to look ugly. I expect another low scoring playoff affair in San Diego tonight, especially while the starters are throwing.
Pick: First 5 Under 3.5 (-110 | Play to -125)
Moneyline
I have a definite lean toward San Diego. I think Profar and Machado will do enough alongside Tatis and Arraez to give Fried trouble, and then bother the Atlanta bullpen that could see extended work.
The Braves roster may be likely to get on the board at some point in this game, but if against Musgrove, it wont be for much. He simply walks too few batters to get burned by big home runs, and his elite Stuff is supported by a plus pitching environment.
The Padres have done well at home this season, going 45-35 on the money line when playing at Petco Park.
Run Line (Spread)
After getting shut out last night, there should be some semblance of offense from the Braves in this game. I'm not sure how much, but with my bet being towards there being only a few runs early on, and then this getting into a bullpen duel, I'd have to lean towards the underdog against the spread and take the Braves +1.5.
There's always something to be said for the away team as a dog on the run line, especially in a playoff scenario where the final score matters much less than the result. The bend-don't-break philosophy will be in play for the Padres, especially with reliever use. They may not employ their top arms unless it becomes a tight game, though the Padres bullpen is decently rested.
The Padres have struggled against the spread both at home (35-45 ATS) and as favorites (43-57), which are certainly correlated. The underdog spread is high priced given the low scoring expectations and the increased value of the runs, but it is likely the right play as a close victory appears probable.
Over/Under
The totals at Petco Park this season have gone a different way than one might expect from surface level analysis. The Padres home park is one of the better places for pitchers to pitch, and one might expect that would mean totals go under the number more frequently, but it's the opposite. The expectation of the market for there to be less runs at this ballpark leads to deflated numbers that give value to the over, more often than the under. Or, at least thats how it's gone this season…
Totals are 44-34-2 O/U when the Padres are at home, but each team has only gone over the line in two of their last ten contests, with the Braves at 2-6-2, and the Padres at 2-7-2 O/U. Playoff baseball usually means its decently safe to escape from full season trends, there's plenty of reason here to think that the pitchers will do well and keep this total low. I'm on the F5 Under and lean under for the game as well.
Braves vs Padres Betting Trends
Braves Betting Trends
- Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games.
Padres Betting Trends
- Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home.
