Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 9 -108o / -112u | -125 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9 -108o / -112u | +105 |
Frankie Montas was a key deadline acquisition for the Milwaukee Brewers to help the rotation with its depth. He does have issues getting hitters out via the punchout, but he did look sharp in his first outing as a Brewer.
His opponent will be the Atlanta Braves on Thursday in a matinee outing with Charlie Morton getting the start on the mound. The Braves are clinging to a playoff spot right now after a litany of injuries. Morton might be a tad better than Montas, but frankly, there is not a major gap between the two.
With most aspects of these two teams being similar, Milwaukee is quite undervalued for this showdown. Here's my Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction for Thursday, August 8.
Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Charlie Morton (ATL) | Stat | RHP Frankie Montas (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | W-L | 5-8 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.94/4.33 | ERA /xERA | 5.03/4.67 |
| 4.35/4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 4.87/4.58 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.45 |
| 14.3% | K-BB% | 9.7% |
| 46.4% | GB% | 42.1% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 98 | Location+ | 100 |
D.J. James' Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Morton Doesn't Give Big Enough Edge
Charlie Morton is maybe slightly better than Montas, but he still has a 3.94 ERA against a 4.33 xERA. His average exit velocity is similar to Montas’, and Morton’s hard-hit rate is about league average. The major difference is that although Morton has an above-average ground-ball rate, he issues too many walks. Morton might have a little edge, but the Milwaukee lineup has been a little better than Atlanta's.
Atlanta has a 91 wRC+ with a 7.3% walk rate and 25.6% strikeout rate in the last month. The Braves have five batters above a .350 xwOBA but no others above .300. The Braves’ lineup can get the job done at the top but quickly drops off of a cliff shortly thereafter. The injuries mounting to both the Atlanta lineup and rotation have killed any upward momentum in the standings. The lineup just does not have the depth it had at the start of the year, and this is where Montas could look better on Thursday.
The Braves have a decent bullpen and may need it if the Brew Crew can get to Morton early. Atlanta holds a 3.54 xFIP in relief since July 8, with a walk rate just under 9% and strikeout rate above 26%. They also have five arms who can backup Morton’s start. Getting hitters out via the strikeout is nice, but Atlanta does not have much of an edge on Milwaukee here.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Bullpen Can Backup Montas
Montas has a 5.03 ERA and 4.67 xERA. His average exit velocity is 89.1 mph with a subpar hard-hit rate. He used to have a dynamic arsenal that could manufacture strikeouts, but that seems far behind him at the moment. He has cut his walk rate to below 10%, but this is still not necessarily a good mark.
Milwaukee has been decent against righties in the past month. The Brewers have a 100 wRC+ with an 8.9% walk rate and 26.4% strikeout rate. They have nine hitters, though, above a .300 xwOBA. Yes, two of those have fewer than 10 plate appearances against righties in the last month, but the bulk of the lineup can hold its own against Charlie Morton.
The Milwaukee bullpen has been solid since July 8, too. They have a 3.94 xFIP with a 22.1% strikeout rate and walk rate hovering around 8%. They have had plenty of injuries to the relief staff, but they still have five arms under a 4.00 xFIP if Montas struggles with throwing strikes and thus, accruing pitches.
Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Atlanta just is not the team it was before injuries started to add up for the best players on this roster. While Christian Yelich is on the Injured List, the Brewers have still trucked on in the National League Central.
Take the Brew Crew to win this one on the road with comparable rosters going against one another. Bet Milwaukee from +130 to +100.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +130 to +100 |
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Moneyline
I like the Brewers at +130 to +100 and am locking this pick in.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm going to pass on the +1.5 run line.
Over/Under
At 9 runs, I'm going to pass on the total.
