The Cleveland Guardians host the Athletics on Sunday, July 20, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on CLEG and MLB.TV.
Jeffrey Springs will grab the rock for the A's, and Gavin Williams will oppose him for the Guardians in the final game of this series.
Find my Athletics vs Guardians prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Athletics vs Guardians Prediction
- Athletics vs Guardians picks: Under 8 (-110 · DraftKings)
My Athletics vs Guardians best bet is under 8 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Athletics vs Guardians Odds
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -197 | 8 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8 -110o / -110u | -127 |
Athletics vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jeffrey Springs (ATH) | Stat | RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 3.93 / 4.23 | ERA / xERA | 3.70 / 4.62 |
| 4.84 / 4.71 | FIP / xFIP | 4.83 / 4.46 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.43 |
| 10.5 | K-BB% | 9.0 |
| 31.3 | GB% | 41.9 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 97 | Location+ | 92 |
Athletics vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
After two games with 10 or more runs, this series should end with a low-scoring game at Progressive Field, which ranks 25th in run production among MLB stadiums in Baseball Savant's Park Factors.
The Guardians offense has been anemic throughout the season, sitting at the 26th spot in wRC+ with 85, but they do worse against left-handed pitchers, dropping to 75 wRC+.
That's the edge for the Athletics starter today, Jeffrey Springs, who has also had a great year so far, especially considering the favorable conditions for batters at his home park. However, he's on the road today, where he excels with a 3.61 ERA.
Springs is also on a roll. In his last seven games, he holds a 2.76 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP.
The opposing pitcher, Gavin Williams, has great splits for this game as well. He performs better at Progressive Field with a 3.29 ERA compared to his 4.17 on the road. More importantly for today's matchup, Williams holds a 1.99 ERA in day games.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the under.
Athletics vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
This MLB betting system, titled "Steam Unders with Low OU Support," is built on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, paired with weak public support on the under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular-season games from 2019-25, where the closing total lands between 8 and 10, sweet spots for scoring volatility.
It isolates games where the over/under line has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the under, yet public sentiment heavily favors the over, with only a small share of bets backing the under.
This mismatch between money and ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between those two figures is meaningful but not extreme.
To reduce noise, the system excludes games played in extreme heat or cold, only including those where temperatures range from mild to warm. It also requires both teams to have a recent record of games that hover around the total, suggesting no extreme streaks skewing expectations.
These filters ensure that neither team is riding unsustainable over or under trends.
Ultimately, this system looks for low-confidence unders that have been steamed down by sharp bettors, where public interest is light and the number still sits within a realistic scoring range.
The result is a consistent edge, backed by a high sample size and strong return on investment.
Pick: Under 8
