Astros vs. Rangers Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+150 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -140 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -170 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +120 |
Fresh off a four-game split with Detroit, the Texas Rangers will take aim at their in-state rivals this weekend when they welcome in the Houston Astros for three games.
With both offenses coming alive in recent games, will we see some fireworks here as we begin the holiday weekend?
Let's break it all down in my Astros vs. Rangers preview and prediction, which includes a betting pick.
Houston Astros
The Astros have had an interesting season at the plate, to say the least. They began the year without Jose Altuve and it took Jose Abreu almost two months to hit his first home run.
They currently sit 11th in wRC+, but they're beginning to experience some long-awaited positive regression.
Houston has the fifth-best expected wOBA and expected batting average in the league, according to Statcast, and over the last two weeks, it's cracked the top five in wRC+.
This team is walking in an extraordinary 10.7% of plate appearances and striking out in just 16.4%, posting a solid .190 ISO along the way. It's a step up for a team with a sub-9% walk rate and a 20.9% strikeout rate, though those numbers are still above average.
Now, let's discuss Ronel Garcia here for a second. He's posted a 4.70 ERA this month in his transition to the starting rotation and has yet to look the part in any of his starts.
He's walked 11 in 23 innings and has allowed two home runs in each of his last three starts, totaling seven for the month.
He's been an extreme fly ball pitcher at 14.3 points above the league average and his barrel rate of 12.2% is quite poor. The right-hander has strikeout upside, but has yet to figure out how to get outs via contact.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers have been just as hot as the Astros at the plate over the last two weeks, ranking third in wRC+ and sporting some excellent numbers all around.
They've posted a beefy .201 ISO with a solid 9.4% walk rate, hitting .289 along the way. While Texas hasn't seen a huge change in its home run-to-fly ball ratio or its fly ball rate, both marks remain firmly in the top 10 and have led to many home runs.
Speaking of which, Jon Gray has been excellent at limiting the gopher balls of late. He's posted a 3.09 ERA this month and has allowed just two homers in 23 1/3 innings.
His hard hit rate has sunk to 34.7% this year as he's learned to pitch better to contact with fewer strikeouts, though like Garcia, he's been a fly ball pitcher.
Gray has always sat around the league average when it comes to the batted ball numbers, but his 38.8% ground ball rate this year comes in roughly six points below average.
With that being said, he's seen a 10-point increase from May to June, which may be the reason for his recent success.
Astros vs. Rangers Betting Pick
We've got two fly ball pitchers facing off here in a park ranked 13th in park factor for home runs, so this game very well may be decided by who can get the ball in the air more.
Houston is not only 16th in fly ball rate, but will be up against a pitcher who's been inducing ground balls at a higher rate in the last month.
The Rangers have also been marginally better at the plate than their counterparts here, and they will draw a pitcher who simply can't stop allowing home runs.
I think the line here is correct, and in an effort to back Gray and fade Garcia, I'm going to take the first five spread.
Pick: Rangers F5 -0.5 (-144) |
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