Astros vs. Phillies Game 3 Odds
| Astros Odds | -125 |
| Phillies Odds | +105 |
| Over/Under | 8 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
After Game 3 of the World Series was axed on Monday night due to rain, the Astros and Phillies will now meet on Tuesday to determine who will be able to snatch control of this series after a split of the first two games.
Dusty Baker will stick with Lance McCullers Jr. in Game 3, while the extra rest has provided Rob Thomson the opportunity to throw Ranger Suarez instead of Noah Syndergaard.
How do we attack this one? Let's cook up a same-game parlay.
The Parlay (+475):
- Phillies ML
- Bryson Stott to Get a Hit
- Lance McCullers Jr. 5+ Strikeouts
Same-Game Parlay – Astros vs. Phillies Game 3
Phillies ML
I simply think the Phillies are the right side here. It's not that I'm over the moon about Suarez, or that keen on fading McCullers, I just think the matchup here makes sense.
More than 50% of McCullers' pitches are either curveballs or sliders, and that's good news for Philly. This team feasted off breaking balls during the regular season, ranking seventh in weighted runs per 100 curveballs and 11th against sliders. It had two players inside the top 35 against curveballs and three inside the top 45 against sliders.
On top of that, it's not like McCullers wasn't a regression candidate this season. He pitched sparingly due to injury, and in that short time amassed a 2.27 ERA, which looked odd next to his 3.57 xERA. Perhaps if he made more starts, McCullers' success wouldn't be quite all it's made out to be.
I'd also like to mention that McCullers posted a walk rate over 11% again this season, and the Phillies are walking just shy of 10% of the time this postseason.
Suarez is a potential hang-up here, but he does own a sparkling 1.86 ERA in 9 2/3 innings this postseason with nine strikeouts. I'm backing Philly to win this one.
Bryson Stott to Get a Hit
One of those Phillies who can really hit a curveball is Stott. He ranks 26th among all hitters in the game with a run value of six against the pitch, hitting .278 whenever he sees a curveball. He's an exceptional hitter and his odds to record a hit this postseason continue to remain far too low.
Stott has a hit in five of his last seven starts this postseason despite failing to record one in this series against the Astros. He's still seeing the ball well with three walks in his last seven plate appearances and should be ready for McCullers, who should give him plenty to hit. He's also got a .273 average against sliders, making this matchup all the more sweet.
Lance McCullers Jr. 5+ Strikeouts
Now, the Phillies may win this game but I don't think that precludes them from striking out. After all, despite having the higher OPS of the two teams remaining and the second-best of all teams to play this postseason, they've still got a strikeout rate just under 25% through their 13 games.
McCullers has 75 strikeouts in 68 1/3 postseason innings, against 281 batters. That puts him at a 26.7% strikeout rate, which is quite good, and for his career he's sitting at 26.5% which is 4.4% higher than league average.
McCullers has gone for at least six strikeouts in each of his two starts this postseason and continues to average more than one per inning. I think this is a number he should get to.
