The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 28, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Diamondbacks are favored by -115 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are -105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates Pick: Brandon Pfaadt Under 3.5 Strikeouts
My Diamondbacks vs Pirates best bet is a prop on Arizona SP. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -190 | 9 -120o / -101u | -105 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +158 | 9 -120o / -101u | -115 |
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates moneyline: Diamondbacks -105, Pirates -115
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates over/under: 9 (-120o / -101u)
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates spread: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+158), Pirates +1.5 (-190)
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | Stat | RHP Bubba Chandler (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 3-8 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.43 / 4.18 | ERA / xERA | 4.47 / 3.99 |
| 4.43 / 4.53 | FIP / xFIP | 4.43 / 5.06 |
| 8.9% | K-BB% | 7.7% |
| 51.2% | GB% | 37.8% |
| .286 | BABIP | .263 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 99 | Location+ | 101 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
Arizona comes into this matchup with a 55-52 record and is 24-30 on the road. Brandon Pfaadt has been excellent since returning from Triple-A Reno, going 5-0 with a 2.33 ERA across 27 innings since June 30.
That recent run gives the D-backs a big boost on the mound, especially against a Pirates team that has been solid at home. Pfaadt will look to keep that momentum going and give the D-backs a chance to grab another road win.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pirates, meanwhile, are also 55-52 and have been strong at home with a 29-26 record. They’ll turn to Bubba Chandler, who is coming off a very solid start against the Yankees.
Chandler allowed just two hits and struck out five over 6 1/3 innings in that outing. If he can bring that same form into this matchup, Pittsburgh should have a good chance to make this another competitive game.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Pick, Betting Analysis
Although Brandon Pfaadt has provided the Diamondbacks with exceptional stability since returning from Triple-A Reno — posting a dominant 5-0 record and 2.33 ERA across 27 innings — his strikeout output tells a very different story. While he is limiting damage and generating contact outs, his swing-and-miss metrics have dropped significantly.
Recent trends strongly support fading his strikeout line. Pfaadt has stayed under 3.5 strikeouts in three of his four starts this month, and in four of his last five outings overall. In his last three starts, he has combined for just six total strikeouts over 16.2 innings, failing to reach the four-strikeout mark in any of those appearances.
Our Action Network PRO System projects Pfaadt for just 3.40 strikeouts today, aligning perfectly with his recent form. Back the data-driven trend and take Brandon Pfaadt Under 3.5 Strikeouts.
Pick: Brandon Pfaadt Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125)
