The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 27, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are favored by -120 on the moneyline and are +1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +102 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates Pick: Over 9 (-120)
My Diamondbacks vs Pirates best bet is Over 9 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -120o / -102u | +102 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 9 -120o / -102u | -120 |
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates moneyline: Diamondbacks +102, Pirates -120
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates over/under: 9 (-120o / -102u)
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates spread: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+155), Pirates +1.5 (-188)
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Merrill Kelly (RHP, ARI) | Stat | Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-8 | W-L | 6-7 |
| -0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 5.12 / 7.30 | ERA / xERA | 4.90 / 5.26 |
| 5.86 / 5.07 | FIP / xFIP | 4.38 / 4.58 |
| 5.3 | K-BB% | 9.9 |
| 39.5 | GB% | 37.1 |
| .280 | BABIP | .285 |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview, Prediction
The Pirates are a pretty simple team to figure out. You want to play their bats against righties and avoid them against lefties.
We just saw it over the weekend. Matt Boyd and Shota Imanaga shoved against them, and then they bounced right back on Sunday to light up Jameson Taillon for three homers in a 9-8 win.
Tonight, it's Merrill Kelly throwing for the Diamondbacks in PNC Park against the Bucs. This series has huge NL Wild Card implications. For the Pirates, it's Mitch Keller. So we have two bad righties with the same initials going at it!
I think we're going to see some runs in this one. Merrill Kelly has a 4.75 SIERA, the way I calculate it. That's one of the worst in the league.
Mitch Keller is at 4.23, better than Kelly, but still not good. Kelly's 14.5% K% for the season is a real problem, and now he goes into PNC to face a team with a lot of power bats, particularly from the left side.
I can't back the Pirates, because I just don't see Keller being worthy of confidence. I am a little bit surprised that the total is at nine here. The bullpens are nothing special, the starters are bad, and the lineups are both above average.
Give me the Over 9 in this one.
Pick: Over 9 (-120, FanDuel)
