The Miami Marlins host the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 11, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Marlins are favored by -112 on the moneyline and are +1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are -104 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Marlins Pick: Marlins Moneyline (-112)
My Diamondbacks vs Marlins best bet is on Miami to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -114o / -106u | -104 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -114o / -106u | -112 |
- Diamondbacks vs Marlins moneyline: Diamondbacks -104, Marlins -112
- Diamondbacks vs Marlins over/under: 8.5 (-114o / -106u)
- Diamondbacks vs Marlins spread: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+158), Marlins +1.5 (-192)
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| Merrill Kelly (RHP, ARI) | Stat | Tyler Phillips (RHP, MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | W-L | 0-1 |
| -0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 5.71 / 7.65 | ERA / xERA | 2.08 / 3.87 |
| 6.12 / 5.29 | FIP / xFIP | 3.64 / 4.48 |
| 4.6 | K-BB% | 7.4 |
| 35.4 | GB% | 46.8 |
| .269 | BABIP | .273 |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 101 | Location+ | 98 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
It must seem like I have a vendetta against Merrill Kelly at this point because I’ve been on the other side of most of his starts this year. The short version is that’s not going to change here.
The Diamondbacks SP had allowed nine runs over his previous 34.1 innings heading into his last start, where the Nationals smoked him for seven runs, but that was a bit misleading.
Kelly had just an 8.8 K-BB% and was allowing 14.7% Barrels/BBE over that span. On the season (10 starts), he’s produced a mere 4.6 K-BB% with 16.4% Barrels/BBE.
The 5.71 ERA fits his estimator range (4.56 Bot ERA/93 Pitching+ – 7.62 xERA) with only his pitch modeling below five.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
Moving on to today's Marlins starter. A lot of Tyler Phillips’ work has been out of the bullpen, but mostly in two to three-inning stints before transitioning to a larger workload in a starting role a few outings back (behind an opener last time).
The 7.3 K-BB% is not great, and we probably should not expect it to improve in transition from relieving to starting, but the contact profile (6.2% Barrels/BBE, 34.9 HardHit%) has manufactured a 3.86 xERA. His contact neutral indicators (SIERA, xFIP) are closer to four and a half, with a Bot ERA (3.85) that matches his Statcast profile.
None of it is anywhere near his 2.08 ERA (83.9 LOB%), but it is better than Kelly's.
We may also be able to establish an offensive superiority for the Marlins, too. They’re 101 wRC+ at home and 96 against RHP, which compares favorably to Arizona’s 89 on the road and 88 against RHIP.
The gap closes when we consider just the projected lineup against RHP since last season, but still favors the Marlins by four points of wRC+ (103 – 99). The Arizona projected lineup does have a seven-point edge (105 – 98) over the last 30 days.
The Marlins may also be able to exploit Kelly's 105-point platoon split this year (59 points since last year) with six or seven LHBs. Batters from that side own a .416 wOBA with 10 of the 13 home runs against him (five on the road).
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
Both teams will likely field quality defenses. Projecting lineups is always a bit more volatile for day games after night games, but this is probably the one clear Arizona advantage, currently 10 FRV (Fielding Run Value), if those lineups hold. (I have projected catchers who did not catch on Wednesday night.)
Bullpen estimators over the last 30 days are very comparable (Marlins 18th, Diamondbacks 19th), and Sean Zerillo also ranks them his 17th (Marlins) and 18th (Diamondbacks) rated bullpens overall.
I’m writing this without full bullpen usage information for Wednesday, where both starters went four innings, but neither team had much reason to deploy high-leverage relievers in a blowout.
Regardless, I see as much value in the F5 line as I do in the full game. It’s a matter of personal preference, and I even considered splitting the bet. The Miami team total (3.5 -146 at FanDuel or 4.5 +120 at bet365) also looks good.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline (-112, FanDuel | Play to -125)
