After a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers will head to Anaheim looking for further separation in the NL West when they take on the Angels.
Walker Buehler is scheduled to get the ball as L.A. looks for a sixth win in seven tries, and he'll be opposed by the recently-promoted Reid Detmers. How do we best capitalize on this matchup?
Let's get into our best parlay pick for Dodgers vs. Angels on Tuesday.
Kenny Ducey's Angels vs Dodgers MLB Parlay Picks for Tuesday
- Reid Detmers 5+ Strikeouts (-130)
- Will Smith to Record A Hit (-260)
- Mickey Moniak to Record 2+ Total Bases (+150)
Parlay Odds: +493 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Welcome back, Reid Detmers. It's been three long months since you were sent back down to the minors for performance reasons in the middle of your fourth big-league season, and the first offense you'll have to solve since your recent promotion is none other than the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The good news is that despite a rocky season at Triple-A, Detmers did build up a head of steam in August prior to influencing the Angels to call him back up. He struck out 19 batters across 21 innings of three-run ball to close out the month, allowing just one home run but walking seven.
I'll choose to focus on the strikeouts, considering there's actually some good history in that area when it comes to this specific matchup. Detmers struck out eight batters over seven scoreless the last time he faced the Dodgers at home in a start last June, and though he lasted just 3-1/3 innings a month later at Dodger Stadium, he still found four punchouts in that outing.
The Dodgers have been just a tad susceptible to strikeout this year, going down on strikes in 21.7% of their plate appearances, and in four meetings with Detmers, they've been punched out 23 times in 19 innings.
There's some inherent value in taking this generous line on Detmers given the run he's been on in the minors and the profile he possesses as a swing-and-miss arm. In his 12 big-league starts earlier this season, he sat in the top 20% of pitchers in whiff rate and struck out an impressive 25.3% of the batters he faced — hitting this number in seven outings.
One man who should have some success against Detmers is the red-hot Will Smith, who has hit .264 against lefties this year to beat out his .241 average in the reverse split by 23 points. He's caught fire in the last few games, racking up five hits in 13 at-bats across his last three appearances, and stands 3-or-9 against Detmers in his career with a .311 Expected Batting Average and a .596 Expected Slugging.
Smith has crushed fastballs this year to the tune of a .266 xBA, which should put him in a good spot against a fastball-dominant lefty. He's hit .292 in his career against the Angels, with nine hits in 28 at-bats at Angel Stadium.
If you're looking for someone to do damage toward the top of the order here, Smith is your guy.
Walker Buehler has had trouble producing outs against just about everyone he's faced this season, but he's been noticeably vulnerable against lefties, with those batters hitting .339 against him in his 11 starts. That's not an uncommon trend when you zoom out to his whole career, and while the splits have been relatively close through the years, he did also allow lefties to hit .271 off him in his 12 starts prior to injury in 2022, as opposed to a .252 opponent batting average in the reverse split.
Enter Mickey Moniak, who's been the lone bright spot for the Angels as they stumble to the finish line. The former No. 1 overall pick is hitting a team-high .360 in the last two weeks, with a beefy 1.287 OPS, four homers and a double to make up the bulk of the nine hits he's recorded in 25 at-bats.
Moniak has yet to face Buehler in his career, but given the platoon splits, there's a very strong chance he comes up big in the middle of this order. He's been deployed almost exclusively against right-handers, and he's crushed them to the tune of a .315 xBA and .582 xSLG since the start of August.
He's slashing .338/.375/.677 in that period of time, with 11 of his 23 hits going for extra bases. And until his 0-for-4 showing against the Mariners on Sunday, he'd tallied two hits in four straight contests. I like him to heat back up here against a troubled Buehler, who finished August with a 6.00 ERA in three starts.
