Tigers vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - June 16, 2024

Tigers at Astros

6:10 pm • SCHN

Detroit Tigers

4-3

1 - 4

Houston Astros

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Blanco			2.80	13-6
K.Maeda			6.09	3-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Tigers 4-3	+1.5	+1.5-140	o8+100	+140
Astros 0-2	u8.5	-1.5+112	u8-125	-166

Sunday 6:10 p.m.

June 16, 2024

Minute Maid ParkHouston

R.Blanco u17.5 Outs+145

Because Verlander was scratched, Blanco’s start was effectively moved up two days (off day was tomorrow), and I’m always weary when pitchers are thrown off cadence (especially a guy like Blanco, who is already at 4.04 pitches per PA, with a below avg strike%). As is, he’s under this line in 4/L7 full starts, and has yet to hit this on 4 days rest. So while this isn’t the best matchup, there’s a lot of factors here that make this play worth it in my eyes (down to +115).

HOU -145 (F5)

0.34u

Flat to -157

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Featured Insight
The Astros have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games since the 2022 season -- fourth lowest in MLB. The Tigers have scored first in just 45% of their games since the 2022 season -- fifth lowest in MLB.

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The Astros are just 7-35 (.167) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

The Tigers are just 21-7 (.750) when leading entering the 7th inning this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .849.

The Astros are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season -- tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .059.

The Tigers are just 26-4 (.867) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .941.

Riley Greene has struck out in 27% of PA's since last season -- 15th highest in MLB-- 11th Percentile. Josh Hader has a strikeout rate of 37% since last season -- tied for fourth highest among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

19 of Kenta Maeda's 60 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor since last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 13% -- 98th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (541/1,283) when behind in the count since the 2022 season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% -- 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .263 (575 PA's) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season -- 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 -- 88th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 41-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19
Tigers	87-75	39-42	48-33	27-39	60-36

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24
Tigers	79-78-5	36-43-2	43-35-3	31-32-3	48-46-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22
Tigers	86-76	43-38	43-38	38-28	48-48

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 15th	DET	L 5-13	-1.5 L	O 7.5	DET -122
Jun 15th	DET	W 4-0	-1.5 W	U 7	HOU -121
Jun 12th	@SF	L 3-5	-1.5 L	O 7.5	SF +101
Jun 12th	@SF	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 8	HOU +102
Jun 11th	@SF	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 8	SF -117

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Javier Baez
IF
Baez is out with back
Out
Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Gipson-Long is out with groin
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Maeda, P	94	5	1	4
LT.Holton, P	15	2	1	0
RJ.Foley, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1W.Perez, RF	1-4	0	0
2M.Vierling, CF	0-4	0	0
3R.Greene, DH	0-4	0	0
4M.Canha, 1B	1-4	1	0
5C.Keith, 2B	0-3	0	0
5A.Ibanez, PH	1-1	0	1
6G.Urshela, 3B	0-3	0	0
7A.Baddoo, LF	0-2	0	0
7J.Rogers, PH	0-1	0	0
8C.Kelly, C	0-2	0	0
9Z.McKinstry, SS	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Blanco, P	94	7	8	0
RR.Pressly, P	13	1	0	0
LJ.Hader, P	26	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	2-3	2	1	3
2A.Bregman, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, DH	2-4	0	0	1
4Y.Diaz, C	0-3	0	0	0
5J.Singleton, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
6J.Pena, SS	0-2	0	0	0
7M.Dubon, LF	1-3	1	0	0
8T.Cabbage, RF	0-2	0	0	0
8J.Meyers, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Meyers, CF	0-1	0	0	0
9C.McCormick, CF	0-2	1	0	0
9C.McCormick, RF	0-2	1	0	0