The World Cup semifinals start today, and two of the biggest favorites to win the tournament go head-to-head as France and Spain face off at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Our team of experts has three picks for the match, so let's dive into today's France vs Spain World Cup best bets.
Today's World Cup Best Bets, Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup matchups that our staff is targeting from today's slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
France vs Spain Team to Advance Pick
The last time France and Spain met was in the Nations League semi-final last summer, in 2025, when Spain beat France 5-4. At Euro 2024 in Germany, Spain won 2-1 against France before beating England in the final.
Spain entered the tournament as favorites this summer, commanding the shortest odds of any nation at the 2026 World Cup. However, after a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde on match day one, France leapfrogged Spain in the outright winner markets and remained there up until this point.
However, recent meetings between these two nations have proven how difficult this fixture will be for both teams. France are a terrific footballing team, but they have vulnerabilities. Interestingly, two of France’s most vulnerable areas are at full-back, precisely where Spain’s two most effective attacking outlets, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, reside.
Considering Spain have just set the longest unbeaten streak in their history – 36 games – perhaps it’s a shrewd decision to side with Spain in the ‘To Qualify’ market at a higher odds-against price, instead of backing France as heavy favorites. After all, with not much to separate Spain and France, many could argue that there should be no clear favorite.
Pick: Spain to Qualify (+130)
France vs Spain Goalscorer Pick
If you wonder why the joint top goalscorer of this World Cup has great odds like this, you would have to look at Spain's spotless record in their first five matches. The first time they allowed a goal was against Belgium in their quarterfinal match.
Now, do you think France will be held scoreless here? I don't think so either. And who would you have as the guy to make it happen, via penalty, counterattack or an amazing mid-range shot? That's right.
Kylian Mbappe has scored 20 goals in 20 WC matches in his career. He has a goal or more in France's past three contests and has only failed to score in the group stage against an alternate Norway lineup with their Round of 32 spot already secured. When the heat is on, he's usually money.
Picks: Kylian Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer (+105)
France vs Spain Scoring Prediction
Spain have the best defense at the 2026 World Cup. They conceded just one goal, and that lone goal came in the quarterfinals against Belgium. One goal allowed from a 1.84 xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) and only seven shots on target against suggests an extremely organized defense, but it’s not going to be easy against one of the best teams and attacks in the world.
France have the second-best defense in the tournament; they conceded two goals from a 3.82 xGA, but their attack has been excellent so far. Les Bleus scored 16 goals from a 14.34 xGF (Expected Goals For); only Argentina scored more (17).
However, don’t expect a scoreless stalemate here. There are too many top-quality players on each side, so it would be shocking not to see goals.
Each of the last three head-to-head meetings produced goals on both sides and combined over 2.5 goals. They met in the semis of the 2024 Euro and Spain won 2-1. The previous encounter featured nine goals, as Spain celebrated a 5-4 victory in the Nations League semis.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-150)
