There's just one game on Tuesday's WNBA slate, but it figures to be an entertaining affair, with the Wings at home against the Aces — and we'll be betting on one of the game's stars in my Aces vs. Wings prediction and my WNBA picks tonight.
Dallas is coming off a thrilling 113-110 victory over Los Angeles in a game where they rallied from a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit. It was just the seventh win for Dallas during this challenging campaign.
The Wings have the worst defensive metrics in the league, which is why they've been an absolute cash cow for over bettors (18-10-1, 64.2%). And with Dallas surrendering a total of 199 points in two earlier losses against Las Vegas, the bookmakers sent out an opening total of 176.5 for their third meeting.
This is the highest opening total of any WNBA game this season, and it's even as high as 179 at some sportsbooks.
While totals this high tend to be somewhat inflated, it's difficult to even consider playing the under here, given how porous the Wings' defense has looked during the year. Instead, I recommend pivoting to a player prop that correlates nicely with this matchup and the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
Aces vs. Wings Prediction
Aces vs. Wings Pick: Kelsey Plum over 17.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
The Wings host the Aces on Tuesday night in a matchup that features the highest total (179) of the 2024 WNBA season. Historically, it's been a losing proposition (40-45-2) for bettors who take the over with a total this high. A better way to play the over is to target a correlated player prop with Kelsey Plum exceeding 17.5 points.
Aces vs. Wings Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -106 | 181.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -114 | 181.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
- Aces vs Wings spread: Aces -9.5 | Wings +9.5
- Aces vs Wings total: Over/under 181.5 points
- Aces vs Wings moneylines: Aces -500 | Wings +360
Aces vs Wings Preview
Las Vegas Aces: Potentially Explosive
Las Vegas has also had its share of defensive struggles. After posting a league-best 97.7 Defensive Rating in 2023, the Aces are now down to fifth in that category, allowing 100.7 points per 100 possessions.
It's been fascinating to note that the top four defenses (Liberty, Sun, Lynx and Storm) in the league all have a rating of 95 or lower compared to the 2023 leaders.
The difficulty is trying to compare this 2024 version of the Aces to the 2023 team that went on to win a second straight WNBA title. Even though Las Vegas is having a decent year offensively, ranking second in efficiency (105.4), its points per 100 possessions are down 7.6 from the previous campaign (113.0).
When you look at the numbers overall, the Aces' Net Rating has dropped from 15.3 to 4.7 year-over-year. But while there appears to be more competition at the top, Las Vegas hasn't faced much resistance against a Dallas team mired near the bottom of the standings.
Both of the Aces' victories this season have been by double digits, and when you combine the second-best offensive team in a matchup with the worst defensive team, you're left with a potentially explosive game.
Dallas Wings: A Steep Learning Curve
In 2023, the Wings snapped a streak of four first-round playoff exits before losing to the Aces in the semifinals.
After finally getting over that hurdle, the Wings were probably looking to take that next step with a roster that's also the youngest in the league. However, injuries have largely derailed their season, as Dallas is four games behind in the hunt for the eighth and final playoff spot.
It's tough to assess the motivation of a team that's been through such a difficult season. With only 11 games remaining, the Wings would need both a Herculean effort and a complete collapse by the teams ahead of them to reach the postseason.
My biggest issue with Dallas is it hasn't done enough to find a player to pair with Arike Ogunbowale in the backcourt. In May, the Wings traded away Crystal Dangerfield to Atlanta for a third-round pick in the 2025 draft.
The Wings use a rookie combination of Sevgo Uzun and Jacy Sheldon to partner with Ogunbowale. It's been a steep learning curve for both players in adjusting to the level and speed at the WNBA.
You can't just correct the Wings' defensive problems overnight. Right now, they need experience and time—two things that seem unattainable with the season rapidly winding down.
My Aces vs Wings Prediction: Play Plum to Go Over
Betting Pick & Prediction
While Dallas has plenty of holes throughout its defense, its inexperienced backcourt can be especially vulnerable. Opposing teams are shooting 35.4% from beyond the arc—the fourth-worst mark in the league.
In the two meetings against Las Vegas, the Aces have averaged 11.5 3-pointers on 35.9% shooting.
One player who could benefit from the Wings' defensive vulnerabilities is Las Vegas guard Kelsey Plum. Her points prop is available at 17.5, and she's exceeded this projection in six straight games when facing opponents who are ranked in the bottom five defensively.
Moreover, Plum has eclipsed 17.5 points in 18 of her 29 (62%) games this season, and she's gone over this number in seven of her last eight meetings against Dallas.
There's no question that this matchup suits her skill set, and in a game where we could see plenty of points, look for Plum to play a big part in contributing offensively.
Aces vs Wings Pick: Kelsey Plum Over 17.5 Points (-118)
