The Indiana Fever (20-20 this season) are set for Caitlin Clark's playoff debut on Sunday as they take on the 3-seed Chicago Sun (28-12) in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference WNBA playoff series. Fever vs. Sun starts at 3 p.m. ET airing live on ABC and streaming on YouTube TV and ESPN+.
The Sun are consensus 6.5-point favorites over the Fever, with the spread having opened at Sun -4.5. The Fever are +205 on the moneyline to pull off the upset, with the Sun -250 to take advantage of home court. The over/under is 163.5 points scored.
I know why you're here — and we're going to talk about her — but you should know that this isn't going to be easy at all. Clark and the Fever are facing arguably the league's best defense, led by DiJonai Carrington and Alyssa Thomas.
This is your Game 1 preview, but you could also look at our series preview for a bit of a bigger picture look at what to expect here. For now, let's get to my Fever vs. Sun predictions and WNBA picks for Game 1.
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 165 -108o / -112u | +205 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 165 -108o / -112u | -250 |
- Fever vs. Sun spread: Sun -6.5
- Fever vs. Sun over/under: 163.5 points
- Fever vs. Sun moneyline: Sun -250, Fever +205
- Fever vs. Sun pick: DiJonai Carrington player prop
My best bet for Sun vs. Fever is on the biggest villain for the Clarkies in this series — DiJonai Carrington, who will likely be assigned with the vast majority of defensive possessions on Caitlin Clark. As great as Clark has been, this won't be made easy.
DiJonai Carrington also just so happened to clear 13.5 points in all four games against the Fever, and as a scorer, has consistently played better against them than she has against anyone else in the league.
Sun vs. Fever Pick: DiJonai Carrington over 13.5 points (+100)
Indiana Fever
The Fever went 1-3 against the Sun this season, but the one win was in August, and was the only game played between the two teams after June.
It was amid the notable season-ending stretch for the Fever, where they looked like one of the best teams in the W, ending the campaign 9-5 following the Olympic break.
And since you'll wanna know, Clark averaged 24.3 points, 8.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds and shot about 44/36/93 splits before the meaningless season finale. She also averaged 5.8 turnovers per contest — a carryover from college, where she consistently was among the league leaders in turnovers. Clark averaged 5.6 turnovers per game, leading second place by 2.0.
Why is this significant — well, other than the fact that you don't want high turnover games in playoff basketball, it's because the Sun force the most turnovers in the league, which is at least partly why their defense is consistently elite. The Sun force a league-high 19.6 turnovers per 100 possessions, and coincidentally, the Fever force a league-low 14.5 per 100 possessions.
The Fever's late-season run also needs to be attributed to the play of Kelsey Mitchell and Aaliyah Boston.
Mitchell is the forever unsung hero of the team, who averaged 24.8 points in her last 13 games before the season ender, in which she logged five minutes. Mitchell shot 50/45/87 in those games.
Boston logged 13.8 points, 9.6 boards and 4.2 assists in the same stretch, converting over 51 percent from the field.
Connecticut Sun
Defense, defense, defense. That's what we're paying most attention to here.
The Sun were 21-18-1 to the over this season, but often with low totals, even ones lower than the 163.5 mark for Game 1 — two of four Fever vs. Sun games have gone under this season. (That means two others went over.)
The Sun, like the Fever, are generally a better over bet at home, where they're 13-6-1 to the over, and the Fever are 13-7 to the over on the road. Against the spread, Connecticut is 13-14-1 as the betting favorite this season, whereas the Fever finished an even 12-12 as the underdog.
This series will also be a clash in pace. The Fever are the second fastest team in the league, playing at a 79.8 pace, while the methodical Sun are the league slowest 75.8.
The Sun were uneasy out of the break, and in the final month of the season, they lost as many games (finishing 10-6) as they did in two months of WNBA ball before the Olympics (18-6).
And as far as who gets it done, it'll change on a night-to-night basis, which is what makes the Sun balanced, difficult to guard, and, at the same time, not always reliable on offense. But we're to expect big minutes of Thomas, Carrington, DeWanna Bonner, Brionna Jones, Marina Mabrey and Tyasha Harris.
As mentioned earlier, Carrington went over in all four games against the Fever. Carrington averaged 17.8 points vs. the Fever, scoring 16, 14, 22 and 19. And the Fever's defense hasn't been anything like the Sun's this season, even if it did look better down the stretch than it had early on this season.
Sun vs. Fever Pick: DiJonai Carrington over 13.5 points (+100)
How to Watch Game 1 of Fever vs. Sun
| Fever vs. Sun | Sunday, September 22 |
| Start Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, Connecticut |
Sun vs. Fever is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET live from Mohegan Sun Arena in Montville, Connecticut on Sunday. The game starts at 3 p.m. ET on ABC and streaming live on YouTube TV and ESPN+.
