- Adam Kaufman breaks down Sun vs Mystics tonight.
- Continue reading for Kaufman's WNBA picks, including a betting break and a player prop worth targeting.
The Connecticut Sun (7-20) and Washington Mystics (14-12) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at CareFirst Arena in Washington, DC. The game will be broadcast live on NBCS-BOS.
The Mystics are favored by -6.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 157.5 (-109o / -111u). The Mystics are a -239 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +192 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sun vs Mystics predictions and WNBA picks.
Sun vs Mystics Odds, Pick
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -112 | 157.5 -109o / -111u | +192 |
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -108 | 157.5 -109o / -111u | -239 |
- Sun vs. Mystics Spread: Sun +6.5 (-112), Mystics -6.5 (-108)
- Sun vs. Mystics Over/Under: 157.5 (-109o / -111u)
- Sun vs. Mystics Moneyline: Sun +192, Mystics -239
- Sun vs. Mystics Best Bet: Shakira Austin Over 14.5 Points (-110)
Sun vs Mystics Preview
The WNBA returns from its All-Star break Tuesday night as the playoff-chasing Mystics host the struggling Sun in Washington.
Connecticut limped into the break on a two-game losing streak, capped by a season-worst 123-88 defeat in Indiana. The Fever produced a franchise-record scoring output as All-Star Caitlin Clark finished with 27 points and 11 assists.
The loss highlighted the inconsistency that has plagued Connecticut throughout the season.
Brittney Griner leads the Sun with 14.1 points and 1.8 blocks per game, though she will miss this outing with a left knee injury.
Leila Lacan (12.8 PPG, 4.4 APG, 2.1 SPG) and Aneesah Morrow (10.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG) have provided encouraging flashes despite the team's ongoing struggles.
Tuesday marks the fourth of a six-game road trip for Connecticut. The Sun split the first two contests with the Mercury.
Washington, meanwhile, entered the break with consecutive victories, including a dramatic 100-99 win over Las Vegas to begin a six-game homestand.
Shakira Austin delivered 25 points and converted a go-ahead three-point play with 12.8 seconds remaining after grabbing an offensive rebound. All-Star Sonia Citron added 20 points as the Mystics erased a nine-point fourth-quarter deficit.
Washington currently holds the league’s final playoff spot, sitting 3.5 games ahead of Portland.
Citron paces the Mystics with 17.2 points per game, while Austin has averaged 15 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. All-Star Kiki Iriafen (14.8 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and Michaela Onyenwere (10.1 PPG) round out the balanced frontcourt.
Iriafen impressed during All-Star Weekend, finishing with 10 points and six rebounds in just 17 minutes, while Citron scored eight points in 11 minutes.
These teams split two meetings in Washington last month. The Mystics won 88-81 on June 17 despite playing without both Austin and Iriafen before Connecticut answered with a 68-57 triumph nine days later, even with head coach Rachid Meziane sidelined with an illness.
They'll meet one final time in Washington on Sept. 22.
Sun vs Mystics Prediction, Betting Analysis
Shakira Austin has quietly become one of the WNBA's most reliable scorers over the past month.
She has scored at least 15 points in seven of her eight games in July while averaging 19.1 points during that stretch, yet sportsbooks continue to post her points prop at just 14.5.
Action PRO projects Austin for 16.25 points, creating a 12.3% edge over the current number.
The underlying usage supports the projection.
Austin has attempted between 10 and 18 field goals in every game this month while averaging 6.5 free throw attempts per contest. Both figures represent a noticeable jump from June, when her shot attempts fluctuated much more dramatically and she averaged only 4.4 trips to the foul line.
Her lone disappointing performance against Connecticut came under very different circumstances. Austin was limited to six points in just 23 minutes after committing seven turnovers, but her offensive role has expanded significantly since then.
She's averaging nearly 30 minutes per game in July and has become a focal point of Washington's half-court offense.
Against a Connecticut team that has struggled to consistently defend inside and enters the second half of the season searching for answers, Austin should once again have plenty of opportunities to attack the paint and get to the free-throw line.
Everything points toward another high-volume offensive night.
Best Bet: Shakira Austin Over 14.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)
