How did the first round of the WNBA Playoffs go? Well, let’s just say there weren’t any series upsets and all four top-seeded teams swept their opponents. But don’t expect a sweep in this series between the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx, which features the top two defenses and the hottest player in the league, Napheesa Collier.
Sun vs. Lynx is set to tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, airing live on ESPN and streaming on YouTube TV, ESPN+ and other streaming apps. The Lynx are consensus 4-point favorites over the Sun on the spread (Lynx -4), with the over/under set at 154 points. Minnesota is a -200 favorite on the moneyline to win Game 1, with the Lynx +165 to pull off the upset.
Which team will jump out to a 1-0 advantage in this best of five semifinals series? Find out below in my Sun vs. Lynx predictions and WNBA picks for Sunday, September 29.
Sun vs. Lynx Predictions
Spread
I'm betting the spread in Game 1 and taking the points with the Sun. However, with the Lynx -4 at most books, be sure to shop around for the Sun at +4.5.
Over/Under
I don't have a bet on the total tonight, but let's root for points!
Moneyline
I do not have a bet on the outright winner here, but as I am betting the underdog to cover, there's a chance we see an upset in tonight's WNBA playoff game.
Prediction
My Lynx vs. Sun best bet is on Connecticut to cover the spread (+4.5), with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live WNBA odds page.
Pick: Sun to cover the spread (Bet at +4.5)
Sun vs. Lynx Odds, Lines
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 155 -110 / -110 | +154 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 155 -110 / -110 | -192 |
Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx Game 1 Preview
Connecticut Sun
Even with a brutally slow start in Game 2, the Sun managed to stave off the red-hot Indiana Fever, sweeping them in two games.
This season, Connecticut has been a force defensively, holding opponents to the fewest points per game in the W.
The Sun picked up right where they left off in the playoffs, shutting down the Fever to a very modest offensive output, including a combined effective field goal percentage of 46.9%, the second-lowest of any team this postseason.
Offensively, Connecticut has been one of the more balanced teams in basketball, with six players averaging double-digit points, including Marina Mabrey, who was traded to the Sun at the All-Star break.
Because the Sun are not reliant on any one player to post huge offensive numbers, their offense is more consistent than most other units. If Mabrey continues to play at this level, Connecticut could give the Liberty a run for their money.
Minnesota Lynx
If we ignore the regular-season finale, as Collier and Kayla McBride were sidelined to avoid unnecessary injury, the Lynx have won 16 of their past 17 games, including a two-game playoff sweep of the Phoenix Mercury.
Between the end of the extended All-Star break until the regular season finale, the Lynx shot roughly 48% from the field (first) and 38% from behind the arc (second) while ranking second in net rating (+8.9).
However, Minnesota’s defense has been a bit suspect through the first two games of the playoffs.
The Lynx allowed Phoenix to post 95 and 88 points in their first-round matchup, which would have been a major problem if it weren’t for Collier, who averaged an astounding 40 points on a 64/63/89 shooting split.
Obviously, that sort of offensive output is unsustainable for any player in the world at a professional level, especially against an elite half-court defensive unit like the Sun. Can the rest of the Lynx players pick up the offensive slack?
Sun vs. Lynx Pick
These teams faced off three times in the regular season, with the Sun securing one win and losing by a combined seven points in the other two matchups.
For the first time in several months, the Lynx defense looked somewhat vulnerable in their first-round series.
In fact, they had a defensive rating of 113.7 (fifth) and allowed Phoenix to shoot 50.7% from the floor and 41.5% from 3-point land, which both ranked dead-last out of the eight playoff teams.
Phoenix was an average offensive team this season, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage and eighth in offensive rating, so allowing the Mercury to post huge numbers is not a good sign for Minnesota.
Further, Connecticut had the highest net rating (+19.6) in the first round and held the Fever, who were shooting 40% from deep post-All-Star break, to just 24.1%.
The Sun’s perimeter defense will cause problems for a 3-point-heavy team like Minnesota, especially since the Lynx have not had much offensive success in the paint this year (last in points in the paint).
Sun vs. Lynx Pick: Sun +4.5
How to Watch Lynx vs. Sun
| Sun vs. Lynx | Sunday, September 29 |
| Start Time: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Sun vs. Lynx is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET live from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Sunday. Game 1 of the WNBA Playoffs semifinals matchup between the Connecticut Sun and the Minnesota Lynx is airing on TV on ESPN and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
