With another win against Atlanta, the Liberty can punch their ticket into the semifinals of the WNBA playoffs.
New York won the series opener, 83-69, while covering a spread that closed as high as -13.5 after opening at -11.5.
For Game 2, the bookmakers opened with New York as a 12.5-point favorite, and that number is already starting to tick up to-13 at one sportsbook.
If we omit the meaningless regular-season finale between the two teams — a game the Liberty lost 78-67 after already clinching the top overall seed — then New York would be 4-0 in the season series, winning by an average of 14.5 points.
While I could easily recommend laying the 12.5 points with the home team, one player prop is so mispriced that I have no choice except to elevate it as my best bet.
Dream vs. Liberty Odds, Prediction, Picks
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+12.5 -112 | 155.5 -112 / -108 | +625 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-12.5 -108 | 155.5 -112 / -108 | -950 |
- Dream vs. Liberty spread: Liberty -12.5
- Dream vs. Liberty over/under: 155.5 points
- Dream vs. Liberty moneyline: Liberty -950, Dream +625
- Dream vs. Liberty pick: Tina Charles Under 10.5 Rebounds (-125)
After inserting Leonie Fiebich into the starting lineup, New York can sweep Atlanta and advance to the second round of the WNBA playoffs. In this preview, we'll share why New York's rookie forward could play a role in Tina Charles staying under her rebounding total.
Atlanta Dream: Major Offensive Problems
Atlanta's inability to score from beyond the arc ultimately proved costly in Game 1. The Dream converted just 3-of-16 (18.8%) 3-point attempts compared to New York, which went 8-of-23 (34.8%).
Thus, with Atlanta losing the game by 14 points, one can't overlook the impact of its perimeter struggles.
Throughout the regular season, Atlanta struggled from the perimeter, posting the third-fewest 3-point field goals (6.0 per game) and second-worst 3-point percentage (30.8%).
Its 96.6 Offensive Rating ranked last in the league, almost canceling out any success it had defensively.
Atlanta players often have to score a lot on their own. The ball movement tends to be slow and stagnant, which led to the league-worst assists mark of 18.4 per game.
Despite its three-guard lineup featuring Allisha Gray, Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard, the Dream managed only 16 assists in Game 1.
New York Liberty: The Secret Weapon
New York's rookie forward Fiebich exploded for 21 points in her first playoff game to lead all scorers.
Los Angeles originally drafted Fiebich 22nd overall in 2020, but the 6-foot-4 forward didn't debut in the WNBA until 2024, one year after New York acquired her rights as part of a four-team trade.
However, Feibich is not just your typical rookie. She's a German national team player and a back-to-back MVP winner (2023, 2024) in the Spanish National League.
Her role with New York fits an overall vision of ball-handling wing players who can stretch the floor and guard the perimeter.
Feibich got a surprise start in Game 1; because by moving Courtney Vandersloot to the bench, New York could always have two playmakers on the court in its rotations.
By inserting Feibich in the lineup, she could match up against Howard, allowing Betnijah Laney-Hamilton to use her size to defend Atlanta's point guard Canada — something it couldn't do with Vandersloot in the lineup.
Interestingly, the Liberty waited until the postseason to unveil this strategy with Feibich. The German might be the secret weapon that leads New York to its first-ever WNBA title.
Liberty vs. Dream: Bet This Player Prop
In preparation for this matchup, I researched and found that playoff underdogs of 12 or more points coming off a loss of 14 or more points are 0-4 straight up and against the spread in Game 2.
The total is also 3-0 to the over when it's below 170 points.
Hence, given such profitability, we can certainly make a case for New York and the over.
Yet, I can't overlook this rebounding prop involving Atlanta's Tina Charles.
Charles averaged 9.6 rebounds during the regular season — below her prop of 10.5. She's also averaging fewer rebounds (8.6) when she plays away from home.
New York finished second — above Atlanta — in rebounding, and Fiebich's increased role can also make the Liberty more formidable on the glass.
Charles has stayed under 10.5 rebounds in 13 of her 17 away games and four of her last five head-to-head meetings with New York.
With New York being the superior rebounding team, this prop feels inflated at 10.5, making the under our best bet for Game 2.
Dream vs. Liberty Pick: Tina Charles Under 10.5 Rebounds (-125, Caesars)
How to Watch Liberty vs. Dream
| Dream vs. Liberty | Tuesday, September 24 |
| Start Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
Liberty vs. Dream is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET live from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on Tuesday. The game is airing on TV on ESPN and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
