The Las Vegas Aces (7-3) and Phoenix Mercury (5-4) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Ariz. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Mercury are favored by -4.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 163.5 (-110o / -110u). The Mercury are a -185 favorite to win outright, while the Aces are +152 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Aces vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks.
Aces vs. Mercury Odds, Pick
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
- Aces vs. Mercury Spread: Mercury -4.5 (-112 ), Aces +4.5 (-109)
- Aces vs. Mercury Over/Under: 163.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Aces vs. Mercury Moneyline: Aces +152, Mercury -185
- Aces vs. Mercury Best Bet: Jackie Young Under 22.5 Points + Assists (-130, Caesars)
Aces vs. Mercury Preview
As the series shifts to Phoenix, so do the expectations of the series. The Aces took the first two games on their home court to give themselves a big advantage heading into Game 3. However, home court advantage looms large as the Mercury are multiple-possession favorites.
Additionally, we have seen the first two games of the series go over the total, but the market has come in and bet the total for tonight down to 163.5 at the time of writing. I factored in scoring regression in Game 2 to greatly impact Aces guard Jackie Young, but I couldn't have been more wrong.
Young was the reason the game went over, essentially, as she exploded for 32 points, surpassing her line. Although I'm not afraid to go right back to well, her regression should be even heavier now in Game 3.
Young's Game 2 performance was a true outlier, as she took and made significantly more shots than we had seen this season. It was the first time she went over her Points+Assists total against the Mercury this season.
Aces vs. Mercury Prediction
With the Mercury expected to get on the board in this series tonight, that does not bode well for the Aces offensively. As we discussed in the last game, the Mercury have Young's number, as they've contained her in five of their previous six meetings. Following her big night, expect even more focus on her in Game 3.
Fade Young with confidence tonight.
Best Bet: Jackie Young Under 22.5 Points + Assists
