The Pittsburgh Penguins (37-21-16) and Tampa Bay Lightning (46-21-6) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-110o / -110u). The Lightning are a -170 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while the Penguins are +142 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Penguins vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Penguins vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | +142 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Penguins vs. Lightning Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+142), Penguins +1.5 (-170)
- Penguins vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Penguins vs. Lightning Moneyline: Penguins +142, Lightning -170
Penguins vs Lightning Kalshi Odds
If you want to trade on Penguins vs Lightning at Kalshi, sign up using our Kalshi promo code. This prediction market app is legal in most states and offers a variety of unique markets beyond the NHL.
Penguins vs. Lightning Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins have played strong defense this season. By limiting high-danger scoring chances, Pittsburgh ranks in the top half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
The Penguins have also been effective on special teams. They rarely take penalties, ranking 12th in penalty minutes per game, and have been efficient when short-handed.
Entering this matchup, Pittsburgh ranks seventh in penalty kill percentage. With solid defense at both even strength and on special teams, it is no surprise the Penguins rank in the top half of the league in goals allowed per game.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Meanwhile, the Lightning have been even stronger defensively. They rank second in goals allowed per game, driven by three key factors.
First, strong play at even strength. At 5-on-5, Tampa Bay ranks fifth in xGA/60.
Second, a reliable penalty kill. The Lightning rank third in penalty kill percentage this season.
Third, elite goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy. He is in a two-horse race for the Vezina Trophy with Ilya Sorokin and is expected to start in this matchup.
Penguins vs. Lightning Prediction
Through 52 starts this season, Vasilevskiy is 35-13-4 with a .912 save percentage and a 2.29 goals-against average. He has also performed well against Pittsburgh in recent matchups.
In the past three meetings, Vasilevskiy is 3-0 with a .934 save percentage and a 1.27 goals-against average. Those games averaged five total goals.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
