We have a loaded NHL slate before the holiday break dawns upon us.
Specifically, two games stand out to me the most, as they hold a significant amount of value. I plan on ringing in the holiday season with a couple of cashouts in games featuring the New Jersey Devils vs. New York Islanders and the Buffalo Sabres vs. Ottawa Senators.
Let's dive into my NHL predictions and picks for Tuesday, December 23.
NHL Best Bets, Tuesday, December 23
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NHL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Devils vs. Islanders
The New York Islanders have found themselves in a bit of a skid as of late. They have lost their last three straight games and have been struggling to find some consistent goal scoring without Bo Horvat. Horvat won't be playing again tonight and the Islanders are without Ilya Sorokin, so the odds will be stacked against them tonight.
Jack Hughes had an immediate impact in his return to the Devils lineup after missing 18 games due to injury. Despite the Devils falling short on the scoreboard, it was clear how much they have missed having him in their lineup.
Not only have the Devils missed Hughes, but they also had Brett Pesce come back in their lineup recently, which tightened up the group defensively. That's a bad sign for the Islanders, who need all the help offensively that they can get right now.
Over the past five games, the Islanders have fallen towards the bottom of the league in terms of creating high-danger scoring chances.
Over this stretch, the Islanders have generated the fifth-lowest high-danger chances at 5v5 (10.1). Over their last six games, the Devils have held a 53.03% in xGF%, meaning that more often than not, they have been generating more high-quality scoring chances than they have been surrendering.
Offensively, the Devils' numbers haven't been all that pretty, but I expected the underlying numbers to improve drastically with Hughes back in the lineup regularly.
Their power play only got one opportunity in the team's most recent game, but I anticipate the man-advantage to be a factor in this game tonight. The Devils have the league's fifth-best expected goals for on the power play, while the Islanders actually have the league's worst expected goals against on the penalty kill.
Over their last four games, the Islanders have given up five goals when shorthanded.
This is the perfect chance for a get-right game for the Devils, and I like their chances.
Pick: Devils ML -128
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Sabres vs. Senators
The Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators both come into tonight's contest riding winning streaks. The Sabres have won six straight, while the Senators have been winners in their last four games.
Over the course of their win streak, the Sabres have had the best goals against in the NHL. Since December 9th, Buffalo has allowed only 2.00 goals per game, while their special teams have been clicking.
The power play is operating at a 26.3% rate, while the penalty kill has been successful at an 82.4% rate. Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin have continued to show why they're both elite players in the NHL, as both guys have been producing at over a point per game during this streak.
Thompson has nine points in the last six games (five goals, four assists), while Dahlin has eight points in the same stretch (two goals, six assists). While both Thompson and Dahlin have stepped up, nobody on Buffalo has been as good as Alex Lyon.
Lyon is 5-0-0 in his last five games, while boasting a .922 SV% with a 2.31 GAA. The Sabres will certainly have their hands full with how well the Senators' offense is firing right now. Over their last seven games, the Senators are scoring 4.29 goals per contest, and their power play has been hitting on a 38.5% rate.
Ottawa has been a streaky team this season, and while a lot of signs point to reasons why they are favored, I do believe they're coming in overvalued tonight. The Senators' offense is due for regression, especially if they're going up against a goaltender who has been as strong as Lyon.
Fun fact, the Buffalo Sabres have won the last five meetings between these two teams, dating back to November 5th, 2024 and for a team that's won as much as Buffalo has as of late, it's hard not to take them tonight with the value.
Buffalo has a good thing going right now.
Pick: Sabres ML +125
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