The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10) and Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6) meet in Game 1 of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 5:45 p.m. EDT at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-106o / -115u). The Lightning are a -190 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are +155 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 6.5 -106o / -115u | +155 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +127 | 6.5 -106o / -115u | -190 |
- Canadiens vs. Lightning Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+127 ), Canadiens +1.5 (-152)
- Canadiens vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6.5 (-106o / -115u)
- Canadiens vs. Lightning Moneyline: Canadiens +155, Lightning -190
Canadiens vs Lightning Polymarket Odds
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Canadiens vs. Lightning Preview
Montreal Canadiens
What a season it's been for the Habs. I had a feeling that Montreal was going to be good, but I didn't anticipate it at the level it's been this season.
Captain Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield both averaged well over a point per game, with Caufield hitting the 50-goal mark for the first time in his career.
However, there's been a problem since Montreal returned from the Olympics. The Habs have played to a bottom-10 expected goals rate, as well as a bottom-10 goals against above expected, which is second-worst out of all playoff teams ahead of the Bruins.
I'd like to believe that the talent will ultimately win in the end, but with opponents like the Lightning, it may be problematic.
But it's been Jakub Dobes who has been keeping the Habs alive in games. Dobes has firmly overtaken the role as the Canadiens' starting goaltender over Sam Montembeault, playing to a league-best 18.9 GSAx over his last 20 starts, and a .901 SV% for the season.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Many believed that the Lightning dynasty was over. But that was silly, because betting against Julien BriseBois and Jon Cooper has always proven to be a bad idea.
Tampa, at one point, was the hottest team in the NHL, winning 20 out of 22 games in December and January.
Afterwards, the Bolts stayed afloat, which isn't always a bad thing, but it hurts when captain Victor Hedman had to leave the team indefinitely for personal reasons. Luckily, the captain has returned to the facility, and even though he won't play tonight, his presence is felt.
Over the last 10 games, Tampa's expected goals rate has stayed toward the top, with a 10th-best 53.43 xGF% and an eighth-best 18.92 xGA.
The Bolts will continuously have the goaltender advantage, though, with Andrei Vasilevskiy in prime territory to win his third Vezina Trophy. Vasilevskiy has been crucial to the Bolts' dominance this season, even if his play dropped off toward the end of the season.
Either way, his season-long .911 SV% and 24.7 GSAx, along with his multiple Stanley Cups, have proven that the Lightning can still rely on the Big Cat.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction
This is going to be an all-out goaltenders' battle.
I'm not crazy about the value for either team heading into this game, but I'm happy about the Under. When you have a guy like Vasilevskiy, you should at least consider picking under 6.5, especially if the odds are -140 or better.
I expect that number to go up a little bit because Dobes has been a total beauty toward the end of the season, playing like one of the more efficient goaltenders in the league.
We may have some star power beyond the goaltenders, but I think the goalies take over tonight. Let's ride with the under.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-135, DraftKings)
