With the NFL preseason kicking off on Thursday, August 6, traders are already speculating over potential injuries, comebacks and absences. Among the most intriguing cases on the board is Diego Pavia, the former Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback who signed with the Baltimore Ravens as a free agent. While that signing initially sounded like a golden opportunity, his path to the field has sparked intense debate, as fierce roster competition and his signature off-the-field persona might complicate the equation.
On Thursday, Pavia was released by the Ravens, and he's now looking for his next home. As soon as he was released, the odds of him playing in the NFL preseason took a nosedive.
Let’s analyze what Kalshi traders are thinking on the “Diego Pavia: Play in Preseason’’ market.
Will Diego Pavia Play in the NFL Preseason? Odds
The Diego Pavia Story
The transition from college football to the grueling environment of the NFL presents one of the most unpredictable landscapes in sports. That's why the public had trouble believing that a 5-foot-9 undrafted free agent would even secure a roster invitation, let alone step onto a professional field. But expectations are meant to be surpassed. Pavia bypassed routine tryout invitations and signed a formal, three-year contract as an undrafted free agent with the Baltimore Ravens.
However, his release threw a wrench into the plans of him sopping up snaps behind Lamar Jackson.
The board on the Pavia contract shows a clear market sentiment. At first, traders believed that the quarterback would most likely play during the preseason, with peaks of 95% implied probability, which usually translates to a locked-in position waiting for settlement. However, this market has flipped on its head and looks like a value in the other direction.
Baltimore's roster was initially promising for this market to be settled as a "Yes", as Jackson won't play in a preseason game for more than a few snaps. Skyler Thompson and Tyler Huntley are locked into roster spots, so the last preseason game looked ripe for Pavia to earn a half of snaps.
However, Pavia's biggest fans must hope a new team has a similar situation where Pavia is worth the look as the team's emergency practice squad option. Playing in the preseason is now more difficult without a fourth game, and half the league will want its starting quarterback to get some time on the field.
The "No" is now the safe play, but the "Yes" is the sharp play with the contract nosediving to only 5 cents right after the transaction was announced. All we're hoping for is for one team to need a backup to eat some snaps and prevent injury.
What to Look Forward To
Between now and the Hall of Fame Game in August, localized training camp reports, coaching staff press conferences, and injury news will be crucial to correctly assessing Pavia’s immediate future.
While all the contrarian arguments are solid and based solely on hard data, the truth is that for the market to resolve to Yes, Pavia only needs to step onto the field once during the preseason.
He might not have the experience or prototypical size for a quarterback, but he made an impression on both fans and coaches with his passion and leadership on the field. It’s hard to believe that a player with those characteristics won’t even have a chance at showcasing what he can offer to his next NFL opportunity.
