The Chiefs (6-6) host the Texans (7-5) tonight on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. SNF will broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
Texans vs Chiefs odds list the Chiefs as -225 moneyline favorites and Texans as +185 underdogs. The game total is 41.5 points. The Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites on the spread (Chiefs -4.5).
Below, you can find our Texans vs Chiefs picks and Sunday Night Football best bets, which include predictions for the spread, over/under and props for Xavier Hutchinson (receptions) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (receptions).
Texans vs Chiefs Picks & Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs Chiefs Odds
| Houston Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Kansas City Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
Sunday Night Football odds via bet365
Texans vs Chiefs Against the Spread Prediction
By Billy Ward
I like the set up on Sunday Night Football for the Chiefs, who are coming off a 31-28 loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Kansas City has gone 37-14 in games following a loss over the past three years. The Chiefs had an extra few days to prepare since they played on Thursday last week, while the Texans played on Sunday.
I couldn’t find specific data on the Chiefs' record in “long weeks” in the Patrick Mahomes era, but they’re 11-0 following bye weeks when facing an opponent who didn’t get the prior week off.
While a Thursday game obviously isn’t the same as a bye week, the extra three days is certainly helpful both for their physical recovery and ability to gameplan and prepare for the Texans.
I’d feel even better about betting on them if the spread were inside the key number of three, but the Texans offense could struggle heavily at Arrowhead in a night game. They’ve been mediocre under the best of circumstances, and this is one of the toughest spots for opposing teams to play, with the Chiefs allowing just 14 points per game at home this year.
Because of that, the Chiefs offense can do enough to cover the spread without needing to put up huge numbers, so I’ll take Kansas City -3.5.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5 (-118)
Texans vs Chiefs Over/Under Pick
Playing the under in games taking place at Arrowhead has been a highly profitable investment over the last three seasons — and this is one of the better spots to do so.
Kansas City will be missing three starting offensive linemen, including both tackles. Any team dealing with these kinds of issues up front would project to struggle offensively, but this particular situation is quite concerning.
The Texans defense is elite. They boast the second-best third-down defense and the very best pass defense. Against a Chiefs team that doesn’t have a consistent run gam, this is a great matchup for the Texans despite facing the transcendent Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes could conceivably overcome all these obstacles, but not with Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator. Nagy will lean on the running game too heavily and he will call pass plays in abundance that are an extension of the running game.
The Chiefs' attack was already turning highly conservative, so it is fair to project even fewer called plays that could potentially generate an explosive play.
With the Kansas City defense playing much better at home this season, I will be surprised if either team clears 20 points. I would play this down to 38.5.
Pick: Under 41.5; bet to Under 38.5
Xavier Hutchinson Props: Receptions
By Derek Carty
THE BLITZ is forecasting 1.41 receptions for Texans WR Xavier Hutchinson compared to 2.20 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here.
If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 63% of the time, resulting in a 45% ROI.
Hutchinson has logged fewer than two receptions in two of his last four games. In those two games he went under, he was not targeted at all.
Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $45.12. This play is good down to at least -119.
Pick: Xavier Hutchinson Under 1.5 Receptions (+132; bet to -119)
JuJu Smith-Schuster Props: Receptions
By Derek Carty
THE BLITZ is forecasting 0.81 receptions for Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, compared to 1.35 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here.
If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 48% of the time, resulting in a 39% ROI. Smith-Schuster has failed to make a reception in two of his last three games. He's also been sparingly targeted by Patrick Mahomes, with six targets over five games.
Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $39.37. This play is good down to at least +139.
Pick: JuJu Smith-Schuster Under 0.5 Receptions (+180; bet to +139)
