The Houston Texans (9-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) will face off in the first Saturday NFL matchup of the season at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Beyond spread and total bets, I'm looking at Texans vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorers and have a pick for each team for this Saturday.
Here are my two NFL anytime touchdown scorer bets for today's matchup.
Texans vs. Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Scorer Props
- Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown (+150)
- Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdowns (+275)
Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown (+150)
Nico Collins isn’t quite on the level of Mike Evans for me when it comes to betting touchdown scorers, but he’s nearly an auto-bet at this point of the season to score a TD in a spot like this.
Collins is coming off a two-touchdown game against the Dolphins and gets to face a Chiefs team that plays a ton of man coverage (eighth-most in NFL).
Collins has destroyed man coverage this season, with a 30% target share and a 3.15 Yards-Per-Route-Run against it, and the Chiefs rank 25th in defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s.
Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdowns (+275)
Naturally, if QB Patrick Mahomes isn’t playing this game, it changes the whole outlook on the Chiefs offense for Anytime TDs. Hell, even Mahomes on one leg is still a bit more of a boost than what we’ll likely see if we get backup QB Carson Wentz.
That being said, we’ve seen Mahomes do the one-leg routine on his way to a Super Bowl win and was still able to maneuver enough in the pocket. The issue though is his accuracy falls off a cliff when facing pressure, and the Texans defensive line ranks in the top-five in pressure rate per dropback.
If you’re betting a Chief this week, you should go with a wide receiver, since the Texans (despite ranking first in defensive DVOA vs. the pass) give up a ton of touchdowns to wideouts and rank 31st in the NFL in that department.
The first instinct is likely to go with WR DeAndre Hopkins since he’s scored four TD in eight games played with the Chiefs, but I’d rather take a swing on rookie WR Xavier Worthy.
Worthy leads the team in TDs against zone coverage, and the Texans play zone at a top-10 rate in the NFL. Worthy has also seen at least one red zone target in all but one game since the Chiefs Week 6 bye.
