We close NFL Week 4 with our Lions vs. Seahawks picks to kick off a two-game Monday Night Football slate. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit. The game can be viewed live on ABC and can be streamed on ESPN+ or YouTube TV.
Odds have Seattle installed as a 4-point underdog on the spread, with Detroit -200 on the moneyline. The game total is set at a consensus 47, which indicates this should be a reasonably high-scoring game. The bets (65%) and money (63%) are both on the over, with the total set at 46.5 at some sportsbooks.
Detroit is getting a bit more of the bets (53%) than Seattle but has a clearer edge in terms of the money (60%) coming in. The spread went down to -3.5 earlier in the week but appears to have settled at -4.
Let's get to our Monday Night Football best bets for the first of two games tonight.
Lions vs. Seahawks Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Billy Ward's Lions vs. Seahawks Pick Against the Spread
By Billy Ward
The Lions come into Week 4 with a 2-1 record and plus-nine scoring differential through three weeks, having played relatively strong teams in the Rams, Bucs and Cardinals through three games.
Detroit has covered the spread in each of its wins, which were by six and seven points. The Lions have also left a ton of points on the board, with touchdowns on just 38% of their red-zone trips, which ranks 26th in the NFL. They ranked second in that category last season and are a better offense on paper this season.
Assuming some of that red-zone regression hits in Week 4, Detroit should be able to put up plenty of points against a Seattle defense that allowed 20 points to both the Patriots and Broncos. Seattle is 3-0 but faced those poor offenses and the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins.
Plus, Detroit’s hyper-aggressive decision making means the key number of 3 is less important than it would be in other games. Would it shock you to see Dan Campbell go for two after a touchdown gives him a two-point lead, or if he opts to forgo a tying field goal to play for a lead?
Pick: Lions -4 (-110)
John LanFranca's Over/Under Prediction
The Seahawks boast the top defense in football on a yards per-play basis. It has been incredibly hard to sustain drives against the Seattle defense. Opposing offenses are averaging fewer than 20 yards per drive against them, which also makes this defense the best in the league on a per-drive basis.
Thus far, the Seattle pass rush has been elite. They have generated pressures on 44% of quarterback dropbacks through three weeks, and while they have not played a difficult slate of passers whatsoever, their pressure rate has been so impressive that this data point feels like something that will continue moving forward.
The Lions offensive line is one of the best units in football, but that unit will be without center Frank Ragnow, who ranks as the fourth-best center in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus' wins over replacement metric. This only adds to the concern in protecting Jared Goff on Monday night.
Lastly, since the beginning of the 2022 season, games played at night have went under at a remarkable 62.4% rate. Five of seven night games during that time that Goff has played in have gone under the total, while three of five Geno Smith games have cashed the under.
I like this under down to 45.5.
Pick: Under 47 (-110)
Jared Goff Player Prop
This line is likely so low because of how good the Seattle pass defense has been through the first three weeks, but that's not going to continuehere.
The Seahawks played the likes of New England, Denver and Miami (with Skylar Thompson at the helm). Goff is in a different tier compared to those three teams' starting quarterbacks, and he's playing at home where he has some massive splits. Goff has hit the over at this number at home in 11 of his past 12 home games dating back to the beginning of last season, and he has only hit the under at this number twice since the beginning of 2022.
The Lions are running at a higher rate this season, but I don't expect that to continue. This is my favorite bet of the weekend and I'm rolling with two units on it.
Pick: Jared Goff Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-110)
