The Falcons (6-9) host the Rams (11-4) on Monday Night Football. Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. MNF will broadcast on ESPN.
Rams vs Falcons odds (via bet365) list the Rams are -370 favorites on the moneyline and Falcons +280 underdogs. The over/under is 49 points. The Rams are 7-point favorites on the spread over the Falcons (Rams -7; -115).
Below, you can find our Rams vs Falcons picks and Monday Night Football best bets for the spread, over/under and props for Drake London, Kirk Cousins, Blake Corum and Colby Parkinson.
Rams vs Falcons Props, MNF Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rams vs Falcons Odds, Lines
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 49 -110o / -110u | -370 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 49 -110o / -110u | +280 |
Monday Night Football odds via bet365
Rams vs Falcons Spread Prediction
The Rams have had extra time to think about their loss to the Seahawks, so I am expecting a focused effort that adds to Matthew Stafford’s MVP campaign regardless of the situation regarding their playoff seeding.
If the Rams opt to rest players, it will not be until Week 18, as head coach Sean McVay will not want his key players sitting from Dec. 19 till Jan. 10/11 — when they are likely to play again.
The Falcons defense has not played well down the stretch, and they are struggling to defend the pass. Atlanta ranks 24th in yards per pass attempt allowed over its last eight games. Furthermore, this matchup is especially bad for a Falcons defense that plays Cover 3 and loves to bring extra pass rushers by blitzing.
The Falcons rank second in the NFL in blitz rate and the rate in which they play Cover 3 on the back-end. Per Sharp Football analysis, Stafford is averaging 8.9 yards per pass against Cover 3 this season — and versus the blitz, he has performed near-perfection, with 27 touchdown passes and zero interceptions.
The Rams allow just 3.9 yards per carry to opposing runners, so they should be able to keep Bijan Robinson in check on the ground. More importantly, they also rank ninth in DVOA specifically against running backs out of the backfield in the receiving game.
As long as Robinson doesn’t take over the game, I cannot envision Kirk Cousins keeping pace with Stafford in what projects to be a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Rams -7; bet to -8
Rams vs Falcons Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
I’m still not sold on the Falcons offense under Kirk Cousins. They’ve had some solid games offensively, but they’ve largely came against bad defenses, with three of his five starts coming against bottom-nine scoring defenses in the NFL.
The one game against a solid opponent was a 37-9 loss to the Seahawks. Seattle has the best defense by DVOA in the NFL – while the Rams rank third.
That makes this an extremely tough matchup for the Falcons offense – but a quietly difficult one for the Rams, as well. Atlanta ranks second in the NFL in adjusted sack rate and is much easier to run against than throw.
That means the Rams could either stick with their typical high passing rate, but likely be considerably less efficient than they normally are. Or, they could switch to a more run-heavy approach (presumably with a solid lead) and take longer to move the ball, even if they are able to find success.
Either way means it’s unlikely the Rams put up a huge scoring total, so I’ll take under 50.
Pick: Under 50 (-110)
Blake Corum Props: Back LA's Backup RB?
By Nick Galaida
Blake Corum continues eating his way into more opportunities in the Rams backfield.
From Weeks 1-7, he had a 22% snap share; from Weeks 9-13, he earned 38.7% of the team's carries that went to the running back position. Since Week 14, he's taken even more snaps away from Kyren Williams — and for good reason.
Since Week 9, Corum has the second-highest explosive rush% of any running back in the NFL (min. 60 attempts). Since Week 9, Atlanta's rush defense ranks 20th in EPA/play and 18th in explosive rush% allowed.
Corum could be in for a big night.
Pick: Blake Corum Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110); bet to 46.5
Drake London Anytime TD Pick
While Drake London has been injured for a significant portion of the season, he's been good when on the field with 6 TDs and over 800 yards in 10 games.
The matchup is a tough one vs. the Rams, but the Falcons have been moving the ball with Kirk Cousins — London got eight targets last week in his return. While Cousins has been targeted Kyle Pitts a lot recently, the Rams defend tight ends well and could mitigate his effectiveness.
I have the true odds on London scoring around +150.
Pick: Drake London Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Kirk Cousins Props: Captain Kirk Will Sling It
By Grant Neiffer
The matchup for Cousins is a tough one, but the line is far too low.
Yes, the Falcons' receiving corps is a bit beat up, but I think that London and Kyle Pitts end up playing.
With the Falcons listed as 7.5-point underdogs, they are likely going to be forced into a passing game script. This game is being played in a dome, which should help the receiving game.
I have Cousins projected for 20 yards over this number.
Pick: Kirk Cousins Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Colby Parkinson Player Props: Bad Matchup
By Nick Giffen
Colby Parkinson averages 5.6 targets/100% of snaps. He projects to play 86% snaps tonight, which equates to 4.8 expected targets before we adjust for opponent — and the Falcons might be the worst possible opponent.
The Falcons allow the second-fewest targets to players lined up in-line; Parkinson lines up in-line more than the other Rams tight ends (86.2% of snaps). Atlanta also blitzes the second-most in the league, so Parkinson could have to stay in to block more. When he does run routes, targets per route run goes down.
Atlanta is top 10 in pressure rate over expectation, and Parkinson's target share drops the most of all Rams tight ends when Matthew Stafford is pressured.
The Falcons utilize a high rate of zone and single-high coverage — Parkinson's target share goes down against both. Their style of coverage encourages deeper throws; Parkinson has a 3.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT), but he will likely have longer targets with lower catch rates than his 78.6% rate.
Atlanta is in the top 10 for yards per reception allowed to TEs, so I'm avoiding the under on the yards market but love it for receptions. I'm projecting 3.2 receptions and 60% to the under.
Pick: Colby Parkinson Under 3.5 Receptions (-104)
Kirk Cousins Props: Pass Attempts
By Nick Giffen
Cousins' median is 32 pass attempts, but this game profiles as an uptempo spot with a potentially trailing game script with the Falcons as underdogs of at least a touchdown at most books.
The median regulation pass attempts against the Rams is 38, with 11-of-15 opponents going over 33.5.
With a line of Falcons +7.5 and based off the Rams' final margins this year, that projects to around 36.8 pass attempts allowed.
The Falcons have the fourth-highest pass rate increase when trailing in the second half (68%) compared to leading in the second half (38%), among 28 teams with at least 100 plays in both scenarios.
I'm conservatively projecting 34.5 attempts for Cousins.
Pick: Kirk Cousins Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
