TD in 10-of-19 (52.6%). NE D 22 pass TD (85%), 4 rush TD (15%) in 15g w/ Milton Williams. 70% of rec TD allowed by NE have gone to WRs.

If SEA wins and everyone lands around median outcome, JSN wins (possibly even w/o TD if game is low-scoring enough). Prop-implied stat lines: JSN 7 rec, 93 yd, 1 TD Darnold 20-29, 228 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT JSN projects to account for ~40% of Darnold’s pass yardage.

There's reason to believe the Patriots may be particularly vulnerable to Smith-Njigba. For all the talk about New England's cornerbacks, would you believe the Patriots ranked dead last against opposing WR1s this season? It's true — but much like the rest of New England's schedule, the Pats just haven't been tested much. The best receiver they could've faced so far in the playoffs was Nico Collins, but he was sidelined with an injury. The best receiver they could've faced in the regular season, Ja'Marr Chase, was suspended. The best receiver the Patriots actually faced was the Falcons' Drake London, who caught nine passes (on 14 targets) for 118 yards and three touchdowns! New England had six games against a quality, clear WR1 this season, someone you'd treat that way in fantasy football. That opposing WR1 caught at least six passes for 84 yards in every one of those games, with an average of 7.3 receptions for 103.5 yards on 10.2 targets. The Patriots play the ninth-most man coverage in the league, and elite receivers are almost always good enough to beat even the best man coverage. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold ranks third in EPA per play against man, far better than he is against zone, and Smith-Njigba absolutely destroys man coverage. He finished third in the NFL in yards versus man and posted an absurd 4.16 yards per route run against man, which was the best mark in the league. The Patriots' Christian Gonzalez is a great corner, but he can only do so much. Gonzalez did his part in that Atlanta game, but London still finished with a massive line because that's how coverages work these days. Seattle moves Smith-Njigba all over the field — out wide, in the slot, out of the backfield — and no corner in 2026 is shadowing that player on every assignment. Smith-Njigba is in line for another big day, and his league-leading yardage total is even more stunning considering the Seahawks are the league's run-heaviest team in a neutral script. Consider that Smith-Njigba was responsible for 44% of Darnold's passing yards this season and 40% of his passing touchdowns! That's a lot of work for just one receiver. Now he gets to do it all on the league's biggest stage. Smith-Njigba will be the fourth player since the 1980s to lead the league in receiving yards, then go on to make the Super Bowl. And wait til you see the numbers the previous three players put up in the Super Bowl: 1989 Jerry Rice: 7 catches, 148 yards, 3 TDs 1994 Jerry Rice: 10 catches, 149 yards, 3 TDs 2021 Cooper Kupp: 8 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs Not bad, huh? It's a tiny sample, but that's an average of 8.2 catches for 130 yards, with eight scores in three games! Eight catches looks like a good target for Smith-Njigba. He had at least seven catches in 13-of-19 games this season (including the postseason), but that figure is a bit misleading. Four of those six unders came in games Seattle won by 21 or more points. That means Smith-Njigba had 7+ catches in 11-of-13 other games (85%). That also means Smith-Njigba's receptions line of 6.5 is badly mispriced and worth a play, even juiced to -139 (DraftKings). It's probably a full reception too low since he has 8+ catches in 10-of-13 non-blowout games. The alternate line of 8+ catches is worth a play at +130 (Fanatics).