Thursday Night Football kicks off NFL Week 12 with the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-2) and Cleveland Browns (2-8) at 8:15 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland. The game will be broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Steelers are 3.5-point favorites against the Browns (Steelers -3.5) with the over/under set at 36.5. The Steelers are -190 moneyline favorites, while the Browns are +160 underdogs.
Let's get to our Steelers vs. Browns predictions and Thursday Night Football best bets, which include picks against the spread, on the game total, a parlay and player props.
Steelers vs. Browns Odds
NFL odds via bet365.
- Spread: Steelers -3.5 (-105), Browns +3.5 (-115)
- Total: Over/under 36.5 (-110/-110)
- Moneyline: Steelers -190, Browns +160
Steelers vs. Browns Expert Picks
- Steelers vs. Browns pick against the spread: Browns +3.5 (-110)
- Steelers vs. Browns over/under: Over 36.5 (-110)
- Steelers vs. Brown parlay: Browns +3.5 & Under 36.5 (+262)
- Steelers player prop: George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+225)
- Browns player prop: Cedric Tillman Anytime TD Scorer (+375)
George Pickens Player Prop
While George Pickens hasn't had a ton of touchdowns of late, he's due for some positive regression.
Pickens has been used heavily by Russell Wilson since he took over the starting role, with 33 targets on 121 passes from Wilson in the veteran quarterback's four starts this season games. Pickens has five red-zone targets in that span and is a huge threat to take it to the house whenever he touches the ball.
The Browns defense isn't the same defense we've seen in past years, ranking near the bottom of the league in pass defense and 28th in DVOA against opposing WR1s. Additionally, the Browns have allowed 12 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season, which ranks sixth in the league.
The weather and the total in this game aren't particularly conducive to touchdowns, but sportsbooks have more than adjusted for that. These odds are still far too high.
Pick: George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+225)
Steelers vs. Browns Spread Prediction
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have struggled to turn a profit as a favorite. The longtime coach is a money-printing machine as an underdog, but he's covered at a 47.9% rate as a favorite.
Specifically, as a favorite of more than a field goal, Tomlin is 58-73-1 (44.3%) against the spread. Simply betting the home underdog when Tomlin's Steelers are laying more than a field goal has resulted in a 28-18 (60.9%) record against the spread.
Two reasons for my confidence in the Browns keeping this game close have to do with Russell Wilson and the play-calling. It's difficult for the Steelers to win with a margin given their conservative nature. Under Wilson, Pittsburgh is 7% below pass rate expectation, and 11% below pass rate expectation on first downs. It has been a heavy dose of predictability for the Steelers on offense over the past month, which shouldn't be all that surprising given how strong of a defense this team boasts.
Secondly, Wilson has struggled badly in the red zone. Wilson has completed just 29% of his 29 pass attempts inside the 20-yard line this season, the lowest mark of his career. Sure, it has only been four games, but his completion percentage in the red area is nearly 20% below his completion rate in Denver last year. Wilson continues to avoid throwing into tight windows, and this flaw is amplified as the field condenses.
Betting underdogs inside the AFC North has returned a positive ROI for seven consecutive seasons. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, dogs are 114-74 (60.6%) against the spread in these divisional matchups.
Pick: Browns +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
Usually, I'm all over a good primetime under. Here, though, the market has overcorrected itself. It could be because the Steelers failed to score a touchdown last week in their win over the Ravens or it could be the weather.
Outside of last week, though, the Steelers offense has been humming. Prior to last week, Russell Wilson led the Pittsburgh offense to more than 30 points per game in its last three games, which were against the Commanders, Jets and Giants. According to DVOA, of those three defenses enter Week 12 rated higher than what the Steelers will face tonight in the Browns, and the other (Giants) is pretty much the same as Cleveland
On the other side, the Browns are at least theoretically capable of putting up points with Jameis Winston under center. His high-risk, high-reward style usually results in points, although whether they're scored him his team is unknown.
I'm not saying this game is going to be a high-scoring thriller, but a 24-14 Steelers win doesn't seem like it's asking for too much.
Pick: Over 36.5 (-110)
Steelers vs. Browns Parlay
Thursday football can be ugly, and this AFC North divisional battle certainly looks the part. We're looking at wind, temperatures in the 30s, and a chance at some snow or sleet in our first winter game of the year. The total has nosedived from 41 on Sunday to 36.5, just below the final totals key number of 37.
I don't have a ton of matchup analysis on this one, but I'm playing the trends here in a tough spot for Pittsburgh after a huge, close, emotional win over the Ravens, plus my usual Thursday night ugly under trends. It was just too many trends to ignore.
First, let's start with the under trends:
- Windy games (9+ mph) since 2021: 62% to the under
- Mike Tomlin road games: 82-59-1 to the under (58%, most profitable coach in BetLabs)
- Russell Wilson road games: 56-41 to the under (58%, most profitable active QB)
- Totals at 37 or below since November 2019: 69% to the under
- Thursday totals of 40 or below since 2010: 20-8 to the under (71%)
Historically when the total starts dropping on Thursdays, they just can't get it low enough. And if we get a game in the 20s or 30s, then Browns +3.5 starts to look pretty nice, especially with the hook:
- Tomlin's Steelers the game after beating the Ravens: 6-11 ATS (35%)
- Tomlin's Steelers as 3+ favorites after covering in a Rah Rah spot: 12-16 ATS (43%)
- Jameis Winston as more than a field goal underdog: 20-10-1 ATS (67%)
- Kevin Stefanski with five days of prep or less: 4-1 ATS (80%)
I'm just gonna trust the trends. I'll play a Browns +3.5 cover parlayed with the under 36.5 together as a SGP at +262 at DraftKings. Be sure to get Cleveland above +3 as a priority, and getting a 37 if available is probably also a good idea, if the lines wiggle a bit before kickoff.
Parlay: Browns +3.5, Under 36.5 (+262)
Cedric Tillman Props
After a week where Cedric Tillman was the fourth-best receiving option on this team, he's mispriced here against the Steelers.
Sportsbooks are overreacting to one bad game, but Tillman is still the clear go-to option in this offense. He has averaged 10 targets per game over the Browns' last games and is the main option for Jameis Winston.
The matchup isn't great, and the weather isn't either. Touchdown odds more than make up for it, though, with Tillman priced drastically higher than WR Jerry Jeudy and closer to TE David Njoku and WR Elijah Moore.
There will be wind and potentially snow in this game, but the Browns will likely be forced to throw the ball as they have all season. Winston has thrown the ball more than 40 times in every game he's started this season, and the Browns have been passing at a massive clip in the red zone. Tillman has been the Browns' go-to guy inside the opponent's 20-yard line with four targets in the last four games, and Jeudy is next with two.
Tillman's odds should be closer to +300, making this a great bet.
Pick: Cedric Tillman Anytime TD Scorer (+375)
