Since the dawn of betting, many have dreamed of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc. — they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for the NFL Week 16 Saturday Football doubleheader featuring Chiefs vs. Texans and Ravens vs. Steelers.
NFL Parlay for Saturday
- Houston +3.5 (-110)
- Chiefs-Texans Under 42 (-110)
- Ravens-Steelers Under 45.0 (-110)
- Derrick Henry Over 1.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Saturday Parlay Odds: +1276 | $10 Bet Wins $127.60
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. However, they are fun and, just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Weeks 6 and 10, we'll operate with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Saturday Football parlay for Week 16 on DraftKings.
Houston +3.5 (-110)
Despite suffering what appeared to be a somewhat serious sprained ankle last Sunday, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has logged two consecutive full practices to start this week. As of Thursday, Mahomes doesn't even carry an injury designation heading into the weekend.
However, I'm not fully convinced. While the Chiefs listed Mahomes as a full participant, they reportedly went through fairly light practices this week due to the short week and how late it is in the season. Mahomes will almost certainly play barring a setback, but that doesn't mean he'll be at 100% strength.
That's important because the Chiefs offensive line continues to struggle and the Texans rank second in the league in adjusted sack rate. Part of what makes Mahomes so special is his ability to move around within the pocket and make off platform throws — both of which are harder to do on only one good leg.
When Mahomes' status was less certain, Houston was favored by as much as 2.5. While a full strength Mahomes might be worth six points to the spread, I don't think this version will be.
Besides the Mahomes factor, this isn't a Chiefs team that's been putting opponents away. Four of their past five wins are by three or less, and they remain the No. 1 team in our Luck Rankings.
This isn't purely a Luck Rankings pick as the Texans have been on the luckier side, but I'd certainly prefer to be on the right side of the Luck Rankings when possible.
Chiefs vs. Texans Under 42 (-110)
The logic here is very similar to that of backing the Texans against the spread. If Mahomes is at less than full strength, it's hard to see the Chiefs' offense getting anything going against the Texans.
Houston has moved into the top spot in defensive DVOA following Week 15, and both teams are in the top 10 in points per game allowed on the season.
Plus, this game is at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City and outdoors in December. While conditions aren't expected to be especially bad, the below-freezing wind chill historically drops overall scoring by about 5%, per the RotoGrinders WeatherEdge tool.
As an added bonus, we're getting slightly better parlay odds (+270) by taking the under, with the Texans spread and the over working out to +252 on DraftKings. Most other books still have this number at 41.5, so that's where we want to be playing it anyway.
Typically, we'd expect the under to slightly correlate with the underdog covering the spread as a lower-scoring game makes it harder for a favorite to have a big winning margin.
Ravens-Steelers Under 45.0 (-110)
Speaking of tough weather conditions, this game is forecasting for similar temperatures (30-degree range) as the earlier contest, but with winds in the mid-teens. That's good for a 17% reduction in scoring on average, albeit with a small sample size of just six games.
More importantly, the Steelers are one of the league's best defenses, allowing less than 19 points per game. While the Ravens are certainly a strong offense, they were held to just 16 points in the previous meeting between these teams. That game featured better conditions, plus we typically expect divisional rematches to be lower scoring than the original game.
On the Steelers side, George Pickens is questionable, but should be considered on the pessimistic side of that. Pittsburgh's offense is averaging just 20 points per game without him.
The 27 points they scored against Cleveland without Pickens was also somewhat of a function of Jameis Winston and the Browns gifting them solid field position with a pair of interceptions. Pittsburgh managed just 267 yards of total offense in that contest.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are unlikely to make things as easy for the Steelers, which should help limit scoring somewhat.
Derrick Henry Over 1.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
For all intents and purposes, this is a bet on whether Henry catches a pass or not. At no point this season has he finished with exactly 1 receiving yard, nor has he landed in the negatives.
This line was briefly plus-money, and I was hoping that would hold until closer to game time to be included in the parlay.
However, it's still a good bet at -110. Henry has at least one catch in nine of the Ravens 13 games this season, and the Steelers have allowed slightly more catches to running backs than average.
I'm not sure if the latter figure means anything, but it certainly doesn't hurt. We have this as one of the better props in our NFL Props Tool, with Henry's median receiving line at 5.3 yards.
Saturday Parlay Odds: +1276 | $10 Bet Wins $127.60
