What's primetime football without a little same-game parlay sweat?
Action Network NFL experts Sean Koerner, Nick Giffen, and Gilles Gallant cooked up a juicy NFL parlay for tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns.
Be sure to subscribe to the Action Network YouTube channel, where our experts give out their picks on Action Island each week. If you missed this week's show, you can read about their picks below.
Steelers vs. Browns Parlay Tonight
- Browns +3.5
- Jameis Winston Under 19.5 Completions
- Jerome Ford Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
Parlay Odds: +475 (bet365)
Browns +3.5
Nick Giffen: This is a Luck Rankings play. Cleveland is the unlucky team with a luck difference between the two teams of 26 (Cleveland 29; Pittsburgh 3).
The Browns have positive edges in QB coverage matchups and in weighted Early Down Success Rate, so I like their chances to move the ball well against this Pittsburgh defense.
Jameis Winston Under 19.5 Completions
Gilles Gallant: The Steelers rank third in opponent completion percentage at 61.1%.
Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 20.6 completions per game against the Pittsburgh defense overall this season.
With strong winds expected tonight, it could impact accuracy.
Jerome Ford Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
Sean Koerner: I gave out the over on Ford's rushing + receiving prop earlier today, and there's some obvious correlation here.
The past two games have been the first time all season we’ve seen Ford and Nick Chubb active at the same time. Chubb is coming off his devastating season-ending knee injury from 2023 and couldn't make his debut this season until Week 7.
Ford operated as the team’s lead back while Chubb was out over the first six weeks of the season but suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6 that knocked him out for the next two games.
Instead of getting eased back in the last two games, Ford actually led the Browns' backfield in snaps. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he's the main pass-catching back and the Browns were in a pass-heavy, trailing-game script. That has been the norm for the Browns this season, especially since Winston took over as the starter in Week 8.
While Ford has benefited from the trailing game scripts the past couple of weeks, it has also led to him seeing fewer rush attempts on early downs. He and Chubb split early down work last week, but Chubb finished with 11 rush attempts while Ford only saw five.
Based on tonight’s weather and what should be a closer game script, Ford should see fewer snaps overall, but more rush attempts when he is in the game.
