Our experts have revealed their NFL predictions for Week 17.
We have one over/under pick on the Cowboys vs. Eagles game (I'll let you guess which side of the total we're on in a game that Kenny Pickett is going to start) and a pick against the spread on Panthers vs. Buccaneers. We have two experts on the same side of the spread on Sunday in Cleveland.
Let's get into our picks for the mini-8-game slate below.
NFL Week 17 Predictions
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Cowboys vs. Eagles
Under 38.5 (-110)
Cooper Rush is surging, but I am not going to overreact given his performances have come against defenses ranked 18th, 31st, 29th and 26th in DVOA over the last four weeks. The Eagles defense is a completely different challenge, and Rush will have to take on this defense without the services of Ceedee Lamb.
Philadelphia is second in defensive DVOA this season, and it surrendered just 4.4 adjusted net yards per attempt since Week 9, which is by far the best mark in the NFL.
Week 9 also marked the return of Micah Parsons for the Cowboys defense. Since then, Dallas has 30 sacks, six more than the next closest team over that span. Even with Parsons missing four games this season, the Cowboys have the fourth-highest pressure rate this year at 37%.
Kenny Pickett will be under center for the Eagles, and I highly doubt the Philly coaching staff will want to expose him to the kind of havoc the Cowboys can cause. Last week, Pickett was pressured nine times and completed just three passes on those snaps for 2.9 yards per attempt. This means you can expect a very heavy dose of the Eagles run game led by Saquon Barkley.
It wouldn't surprise me to see both team fail to reach 20 points here. I'd play this under down to the key number of 37.
Pick: Under 38.5 (-110)
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Titans vs. Jaguars
Over 39 (-115; Bet to Over 39.5)
I wouldn't normally be looking to bet an over in game involving Mason Rudolph and Mac Jones, but given the way these two defenses are playing, I believe points won't be hard to come by.
The novice bettor may be concerned about the 16 combined points these teams scored back in Week 14 when they squared off, but that will not scare me off the value in this total.
Jones averaged over seven yards per attempt in that Week 14 meeting; he has actually shown he is becoming more comfortable in this offense over the past two games. He has thrown for 544 yards and three scores over those two outings as he continues to feed his best player — Brian Thomas Jr.
The Titans have league average metrics defensively over the course of the season, but since Week 11, this defense ranks 25th in yards per attempt allowed through the air and 29th in completion percentage allowed over expectation.
They are not playing up to the standard they put on tape during the first half of the season, allowing 34.4 points per game over that span in the five games outside of their meeting with Jacksonville.
The Jaguars have been the worst defensive team in the league. They are the only defense that has given up over eight yards per pass attempt, and they have surrendered 27 passing scores, the third most in the league. QBs have a 106.4 passer rating against Jacksonville this season, the worst mark for any defense in the NFL.
Rudolph has provided a serviceable floor for the Titans at quarterback this season, which is all they need to score 20+ points in this one. It is more likely we see a 27-24 or 24-20 type game on Sunday, rather than a repeat of the low-scoring affair from a few weeks ago.
Pick: Over 39 (-115); Bet to Over 39.5
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Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Panthers +8.5 (-115)
By Simon Hunter
It's rare that I love a public underdog like this, but the public has come around on the Panthers It only took them covering the spread in six of their last seven games.
We all know what has changed: Bryce Young. The 2023 No. 1 pick has been the best quarterback from his draft class over the past two months, making big-time throws in tight windows, showcasing improved footwork in the pocket and keeping his eyes down the field while getting outside the pocket.
Young is now displaying the skills that made him the top pick. Most importantly, Young looks confident, a trait he didn't have before his benching earlier this season.
To me, it doesn't seem like sportsbooks are appreciating this new and improved version of Young. They're still treating the Panthers as a bottom-five team, which is why they're laying so many points to the Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers are the best team in the NFC South and have had some bad luck this season with injuries and playing their two worst games of the season against the Falcons, who control their own destiny in the division race.
When Baker Mayfield is good, we know how good this team can be, but we don't know which version of him we'll see. Mayfield is second in the NFL in interceptions, but he also ranks in the top five in touchdown passes. I have no doubt he can lead an efficient Bucs offense, but it only takes a turnover or two to ruin that momentum.
Sportsbooks are showing way too much respect to a Buccaneers team that has a struggling defense and just allowed 26 points to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys last week.
Pick: Panthers +8.5 (-115)
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Falcons vs. Commanders
Falcons +3.5 (-110)
By Sam Farley
The Falcons looked good with Michael Penix Jr. under center against the Giants, but again, that was the Giants.
This week's matchup in primetime against the Commanders will be a far tougher task for Penix. Also, the Falcons need to win as road underdogs to remain in control of their own destiny in the NFC South.
The Commanders have a budding star at quarterback and have pulled off numerous wins that have them in playoff position. Jayden Daniels is the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but Atlanta appears to be on the right track and faces a subpar Commanders run defense that is should handle on the road.
I'll take the points and bet on Penix here.
Pick: Falcons +3.5 (-110)
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