Our football staff is focused on seven of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 16 on December 21.
First, we'll target Buccaneers vs Panthers and Vikings vs Giants in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of picks for Raiders vs Texans and Jaguars vs Broncos. We also have picks for Bengals vs Dolphins, Bills vs Browns, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for the Week 16 Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 16
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Buccaneers vs Panthers
Who would have thought this was going to be a meaningful game down the stretch? Both of these offenses struggle in the red zone, ranking 23rd and 26th.
However, the Panthers' red-zone defense is much more stout than Tampa Bay's.
The Buccaneers defense ranks 31st in red-zone TD% allowed, allowing touchdowns on 72.2% of red-zone trips.
I also think the Bucs are still overvalued in the market. I touched on this last week, but their season is heavily based on some comeback wins and game-winning late drives from earlier in the season.
While they are fun, they are not sustainable. We should have a close one on our hands in this NFC South playoff race.
Pick: Panthers +3 (-110)
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Bengals vs Dolphins
By Bet Labs
The High Winds NFL system is built on how weather directly impacts offensive efficiency and scoring potential.
When average wind speeds climb into the double digits, passing games struggle with accuracy, kicking becomes unreliable, and play calling leans more heavily toward conservative runs. This naturally limits explosive plays and lowers scoring opportunities.
With temperatures sitting in a reasonable range that does not drastically impact player stamina or ball handling, wind becomes the defining variable.
Both regular season and postseason games fit this mold, as weather remains an equalizer regardless of stakes.
Betting the under in these conditions takes advantage of how the market often undervalues the true effect of sustained wind on football outcomes.
Pick: Under 47.5 (-110)
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Bills vs Browns
By Dylan Wilkerson
Hold your nose for this one.
We are all aware of the Browns' offensive inefficiencies, but their defense can make a serious case as one of the best in the NFL. They rank 4th in EPA/play allowed, 6th in dropback EPA/play allowed, and 2nd in success rate allowed.
The Bills' defense is not nearly as stout, and I think that is the difference-maker here.
It looks like we are going to have 15-mph winds for this matchup, which I believe will serve as a neutralizer for the Bills offense.
Pick: Browns +10.5 (-115)
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Jets vs Saints
By Bet Labs
The NFL system titled "Small Bad Away 'Dogs" captures how teams that were poor in the previous season but enter the new year as underdogs on the road or at neutral sites often exceed expectations when the spread is modest.
Teams with few wins from the prior year are usually overlooked by both oddsmakers and bettors, yet these squads can show meaningful improvement with roster changes, draft additions, or coaching adjustments.
Being priced as small underdogs rather than large ones suggests the market already sees potential, but not enough to account for the motivational edge and element of surprise that these teams often bring.
Playing in the regular season, when effort is high and opportunities to reset a narrative are strongest, creates a profitable window where small underdogs with bad histories prove to be undervalued and capable of covering spreads consistently.
Pick: Jets +6 (-110)
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Vikings vs Giants
By Dylan Wilkerson
This Giants defense should be stellar based on their personnel, but they have really underperformed this season. They currently rank last by a wide margin in rush defense and are in the bottom-third in pass defense.
As for the Vikings, it seems like J.J. McCarthy has turned a corner in his development. He had great performance against the Commanders and Cowboys in his last two games, tallying five touchdowns, only one interception, and 413 passing yards — not to mention a rushing touchdown and 34 rushing yards.
We also know Jaxson Dart has solidified himself as a playmaker. I think the scoring in this game could get out of hand quick.
Pick: Over 43.5 (-110)
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Raiders vs Texans
By Bet Labs
The NFL system titled "Low Indoor Totals Go Over" is built on the idea that when games are played in closed domes with low posted totals the environment strongly favors offensive production.
Indoor settings eliminate weather variables like wind rain or cold — which often suppress scoring outdoors — and when oddsmakers set totals below 45 in these controlled atmospheres, they may undervalue the consistency of passing attacks.
With teams like the Texans and Raiders that are accustomed to playing in domes, the pace and rhythm of offenses are more reliable and efficiency increases.
This leads to inflated chances of overs hitting when totals are artificially low since both teams are more likely to sustain drives and finish possessions without the disruptions common to outdoor football.
Pick: Over 38 (-110)
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Jaguars vs Broncos
By Dylan Wilkerson
Both of these teams are coming off of big wins, with the Broncos defeating the Packers and the Jaguars destroying the Jets.
Both squads looked great, were efficient on offense, and proved themselves as playoff contenders.
However, as with a few of these other picks, the Broncos have become an auto-fade for as long as they sit atop the Action Network Luck Rankings.
These two teams have a similar statistical profile. If anything, Jacksonville has an offensive edge, and Denver has a defensive one.
Jacksonville can exploit Denver's 3rd-down defense, which ranks outside of the top-10, to keep this AFC matchup close.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-110)
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