I'm targeting one over/under and one spread for Sunday of NFL Week 15, with predictions and picks for Bengals vs. Titans and Steelers vs. Eagles.
So, let's get right into my expert picks and analysis. I have NFL predictions for my favorite spread and total of NFL Week 15.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL picks!
NFL Predictions, Picks for Week 15
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bengals vs Titans Prediction
The Bengals went through a wild five-game stretch of shootouts from Weeks 8-13 that averaged 66.2 combined points.
Now we’re getting totals in the mid-to-upper 40s when they face the likes of Cooper Rush and Will Levis, which is … not quite right.
The Bengals were shredded by Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Russell Wilson for 306.3 passing yards per game and 9.6 yards per attempt with 16 TDs vs. one INT.
But against the likes of Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Deshaun Watson, Cooper Rush, and (funny enough) Patrick Mahomes, those QBs averaged a pedestrian 161.7 passing yards and 5.8 YPA with six TDs vs. five INTs.
The Titans are still starting Will Levis, but they had him hand off eight straight times to start last week’s game, which they lost by a score of 10-6.
Despite Bengals-Cowboys going under on Monday Night, the last five Bengals games are still tracking over by 16.5 points, on average.
The under is 52-32-2 (61.9%) in games in which the road team team enters with a five-game average of more than 13.0 points toward the over.
This matchup also clocks in with a -81 in our Week 15 Luck Rankings, meeting the threshold for a Luck Under.
Luck totals are 16-9 (64%) so far this season.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-110); Bet to 46
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Steelers vs Eagles Pick Against the Spread
The Steelers defense is the key to this matchup.
The Steelers are third in early down rush EPA on defense. They are top-two in pressure rate with Alex Highsmith healthy. They have the fewest missed tackles in the league.
Getting a few stops on Saquon Barkley on early downs and forcing Jalen Hurts to drop back more is key.
Hurts struggles more than he should to limit pressure given his athleticism and the quality of his offensive line. He's been pressured on 39.5% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest mark, behind only Drew Lock, Jacoby Brissett, Deshaun Watson and Justin Fields.
Hurts’ 5.1 YPA when pressured ranks 34th of 42 quarterbacks, ahead of only one other QB1 (Trevor Lawrence, 41st).
According to our Action Labs data, Mike Tomlin is 62-31-3 (66.7%) ATS as a 'dog in his career, covering by 2.77 points per game.
Pick: Steelers +5.5 (-105); Bet to +4
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