I'm targeting three NFL spreads on Sunday of Week 10, including picks for Jaguars vs Texans, Giants vs Bears, and 49ers vs Rams.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the 10th NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions & Spread Picks
  |   |   |
Jaguars vs Texans Best Bet
Even with Davis Mills at quarterback for the Texans, there’s a strong case to be made that the Texans should be power-rated as the better team.
Among 32 qualifiers, Trevor Lawrence ranks 24th in EPA/play (0.013), 28th in success rate (43.8%), and 30th in Completion Percentage Over Expectation (-5.0) – and that’s with Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) and Travis Hunter (IR-knee) playing in 15 of a combined 16 games.
Both will be out Sunday.
So, what we have is two low-level passing games, but only one elite defense.
While the Jaguars are 19th in EPA per play (0.04), the Texans defense are first in both EPA per play (-0.18) and EPA per pass (-0.21).
It helps that the Texans are at home, and that Mills has the services of his top two receivers, Nico Collins and Christian Kirk, who have combined to miss five games this season.
Although I was high on the Jaguars entering the season, the truth is they’ve been overachieving with five wins (.625) relative to their Pythagorean expectation of 3.8 (.475) derived from their -8 point differential and 22.0-23.0 average score.
According to our Action Labs data, favorites averaging fewer than 22.5 points overperforming their Pythagorean win total by over 12% in Week 3-on are 99-145-4 (40.6%) ATS since 2007, failing to cover by 2.75 points per game.
This is also a B-rated Luck Rankings game, with the unlucky side of the Texans owning a 59.1% luck-based cover probability.
Pick: Texans +1.5
| | |
Giants vs Bears Best Bet
This is a game featuring two bad defenses (Giants 29th in success rate, Bears 30th) in which the Giants have the better quarterback: Jaxon Dart ranks 12th in EPA per play (0.175) while Caleb Williams ranks 19th (0.084).
This is a good buy-low spot on the Giants and sell-high spot on the Bears.
While the Giants have played some of the NFL’s best teams (Chargers, Eagles twice, Broncos, 49ers), the Bears have played the NFL’s worst defenses (Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, Saints, Ravens, Bengals) and quarterbacks (Geno Smith, Marcus Mariota, Spencer Rattler, Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco).
Per our Action Labs data, ‘dogs coming off a three-game losing streak like the Giants are 234-171-11 (58%) ATS since 2003.
This is also an A-rated Luck Rankings game with a 59.7% luck-based cover probability.
Pick: Giants +4.5
| | |
Rams vs 49ers Best Bet
The 49ers are beat up, but that’s typically the case with them, and they’ve consistently been undervalued in the market against the Rams.
The 49ers won outright after closing at +8.5 ‘dogs on the road in Week 5, and Kyle Shanahan is 61% ATS all-time versus Sean McVay, covering by 3.8 points per game.
The Rams defense is a bit overrated after spending the last three weeks facing Tyler Shough, Trevor Lawrence, and Cooper Rush – not to mention Cam Ward back in Week 2.
The last time the Rams faced the 49ers, they allowed season-highs in total yards (407), passing yards (333), and first downs (27), which would have still been the case if you remove overtime.
Per our Action Labs data, divisional home 'dogs facing a road favorite above 70% SU/ATS like the Rams (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) are 71-48-3 (60%) for a 15% ROI since 2003.
Pick: 49ers +6
| | |
