Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Lions vs. Rams parlay for Sunday Night Football.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun though, and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he just tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, that means we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home.
Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Lions vs. Rams Sunday Night Football parlay built on DraftKings.
Lions vs. Rams Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Football
- Over 52 (-112)
- Blake Corum Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Matthew Stafford Under 24.5 Completions (-135)
- Jameson Williams 70+ Receiving Yards (+295)
Lions vs. Rams Parlay Odds: +2500 | $10 bet wins $250
Over 52 (-112)
I like to start these parlays by targeting a total, and then "telling the story" of how the game plays out from there. It's pretty easy to see this one turning into a shootout, with Detroit averaging 27.4 points per game last season and 29.9 at Ford Field.
The Rams have a solid offense as well, and should be at their most productive early in the season when oft-injured key players like Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are healthy.
Detroit had a fairly significant pass funnel last season and should remain so this year, at least early on. The Lions' first two picks in the 2024 NFL draft were cornerbacks, but that's typically a tough position to learn for rookies. That sets up nicely for the passing attack of the Rams to score quickly (and often).
The Rams took defensive linemen with their first two picks — but also lost Aaron Donald to retirement. I'll call that a downgrade overall to a unit that was below average in scoring defense last season.
Blake Corum Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Two of the top three props in our NFL Props Tool are Corum overs, with both his attempts and yardage overs grading as "10" for value.
Our projections are buying into the hype of a split backfield here, with preseason reports that Kyren Williams would be returning punts suggesting that Corum has a large role in the offense.
His over 6.5 carries is also tempting, but I feel slightly better about the yardage line. While Detroit has a solid run defense from a yards per carry standpoint, this gives us some flexibility if Corum breaks one big run.
Plus, the juice on this prop is somewhat lower, which makes for better final odds to our parlay.
Matthew Stafford Under 24.5 Completions (-135)
With these long-shot parlays, I always want to include one negatively correlated pick due to the impact it has on the odds.
My favorite this time around is Stafford completions — taking the under boosts the parlay (through three picks) from +230 to +525, as books view that as less likely to hit in a game that goes over the total.
However, if Stafford completes a deep touchdown or two, that has a positive impact on the game total while limiting his opportunities to rack up completions. On top of that, an effective debut from Corum could also cut into Stafford's passing opportunities.
Our projections have Stafford completing 22 passes, giving us a bit of wiggle room on this prop.
Jameson Williams 70+ Receiving Yards (+295)
As always, I'll be betting two versions of this SNF SGP, one without the last pick at +525 odds, and one including this long-shot addition. Following that strategy paid off on Friday, with the "safe" parlay hitting at +445 but the long-shot leg failing to come through.
I'm buying into the training camp hype on Williams, who the Lions are counting on to fill a bigger role this season after losing Josh Reynolds and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Detroit is thin at receiver after Amon-Ra St. Brown, and opposing defenses will likely be queued in on the Sun God all season.
Williams was drafted to be a big-play threat, with 95th percentile speed and the ability to take the top off the defense. That gives him a wide range of outcomes, and the ability to turn a few catches into a big yardage total.
Feel free to play around with different numbers here, as taking his 90+yards line obviously gives much longer odds, while dropping down to smaller numbers raises the chances of the bet hitting.
Full Lions vs. Rams Parlay Odds: +2500 | $10 bet wins $250
As a reminder, with parlay odds being somewhat opaque there's massive variation from book to book. Be sure to shop around to get the best line as this parlay (give or take a yard or two on the receiving props) had odds of just +1592 on FanDuel at the time of writing.
