The Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) and Indianapolis Colts (3-1) will face off in NFL Week 5. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Colts are 7-point favorites over the Raiders on the spread (Colts -7; -118), with the over/under set at 47.5. Indianapolis is a -375 moneyline favorite and Las Vegas is a +300 underdog.
Let's get into my Raiders vs Colts predictions and picks for Sunday, October 5.
Raiders vs Colts Prediction, NFL Picks
- Raiders vs Colts pick: Raiders +7 (-110)
My Colts vs. Raiders best bet is on Las Vegas to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Raiders vs Colts Odds, Lines
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -102 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -118 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
Raiders vs Colts Week 5 Preview, Prediction
I think we are getting good value on the Raiders this week. These teams have been about equal on the defensive side of the ball so far this season.
The Colts defense ranks 13th in EPA per play while the Raiders rank 15th. The Raiders rank 15th in defensive success rate, while the Colts rank 25th.
Offensively, however, is where these teams differ.
The Raiders offense has been turning the ball over a bunch, and just struggling in general. I also don't love the Raiders' offensive line situation entering Sunday — Kolton Miller just landed on injured reserve, which is going to hurt an already subpar unit.
However, I think the Raiders are a bit undervalued on offense despite quarterback Geno Smith’s problems thus far.
Smith leads the NFL in interceptions (seven) on the season; he has thrown three interceptions in both of his home starts. That said, he only threw one interception in his two road starts, which is a better sign for this game.
The Colts likely have some offensive regression looming. They are tied for the third-fewest drives in the league, and their scoring rate is over 60%, which is tough to sustain for a full season.
We're also starting to see some of the flaws in Daniel Jones. It doesn't look like he's able to use his legs consistently, and the turnovers finally came last week when he threw two interceptions in a loss to the Rams.
Jones ranks near the top of the league when it comes to targeting his first read. Over the course of a full season in a new offense, that will become increasingly more difficult as teams start to dissect his tape.
Head coach Pete Carroll is surrounded by other veteran coaches on this Raiders' staff. Las Vegas has put together a decent defense under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham. He is a holdover from the previous coaching staff, and his defense is playing above their talent level.
The Raiders defense tends to have a better scheme than people realize, and I think they could make the Colts pay in this one.
The Colts had a tough game last week: three turnovers, 11 penalties, and they lost the yards-per-play battle. I think we might be destined to see more of that type of play from Indy moving forward.
Raiders vs Colts Prediction, Spread Betting Analysis
The Raiders have a competitive team and the Colts are not good enough to be a 7-point favorite in this spot — even at home.
I can't get to this number, even with the issues we've seen from Geno Smith this season.
The Colts and Chargers entered last week at 3-0 ATS, the lone undefeated ATS teams in the NFL at the time. Last week, they both lost SU and ATS on the road.
According to Evan Abrams, since 2020, the week after a team loses its first game ATS, they are just 69-84-7 ATS (45%) the following game.
The Raiders are coming off a multi-game losing streak. For what it's worth, Pete Carroll owns a record of 23-6-1 ATS (78%) in those spots. Although, most of them coming as head coach of the Seahawks.
Pick: Raiders +7 (-110)
Raiders vs Colts Spread Prediction
My Colts vs Raiders betting prediction is on Las Vegas to cover the spread at +7.
Moneyline Pick
While I will be betting on the Raiders +7, I'm not interested in the moneyline market.
Over/Under Pick
I'm also staying away from the total in this contest.
Raiders vs Colts Betting Trends
Raiders vs Colts Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 5 |
| Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX |
