The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) and Houston Texans (3-5) square off in Week 10 on Sunday, Nov. 9. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Jaguars vs Texans will broadcast on CBS.
The Jaguars are 1.5-point favorites over the Texans on the spread (Jaguars -1.5), with the over/under set at 37.5 points. Jacksonville is a -130 moneyline favorite to win outright and Houston is +110 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find my Jaguars vs Texans prediction for today's AFC South rivalry game.
Jaguars vs Texans Prediction
- Jaguars vs Texans pick: Texans +1.5 (-110)
My Texans vs Jaguars best bet is on Houston to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Jaguars vs Texans Odds
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
Jaguars vs Texans Week 10 Preview
C.J. Stroud is out for this game after suffering a concussion in the Texans' loss to the Broncos in Week 9. Filling in for Stroud will be veteran backup Davis Mills.
Initially, I thought the odds would reflect a pick'em scenario, but they have shifted considerably.
While Mills is far from the optimal choice at quarterback for the Texans, we need to consider the Jaguars' current situation. Trading for Jakobi Meyers is not going to transform their offense.
Throughout his career, Meyers has primarily been a high-volume receiver on struggling teams — he lacks the impact that would change a game.
Moreover, the Jaguars face other challenges. With Travis Etienne on IR and both Brian Thomas and Dyami Brown nursing injuries, Trevor Lawrence is really struggling.
Lawrence's advanced metrics, such as EPA per play and completion percentage over expected, place him in the bottom three among quarterbacks.
Given this context, the Jaguars being favored on the road seems dubious at best.
The key difference in this matchup will be the Texans defense.
Houston’s defense has shown strength, and considering Lawrence’s performance and the injuries plaguing the Jaguars, it’s hard to argue they’ll be significantly better than the Texans.
The Texans' receiving corps should be healthy with Nico Collins back in the lineup, and they are typically more effective at home.
Despite Mills’ limitations, the Texans can be competitive, especially against a Jaguars defense that isn't generating much pressure and has benefited from a degree of turnover luck this season.
Jaguars vs Texans Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Jaguars' offensive struggles mirror those of Mills' unit. As the Texans prepare for Stroud’s absence, they still have the talent capable of making plays.
Ultimately, I believe Houston has what it takes to outperform Jacksonville in this matchup. The defense has performed well enough to give the Texans a legitimate chance.
Even with Stroud sidelined, the Texans are the better team given the Jaguars' downward trend.
Pick: Texans +1.5 (-110)
Spread
My Texans vs Jaguars betting prediction is on Houston to cover the spread at +1.5.
Moneyline
I'm taking the Texans +1.5 as opposed to the moneyline in this matchup.
Over/Under
No play on the total.
