The Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) host the Washington Commanders (3-4) tonight for Monday Night Football. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Commanders vs Chiefs will broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
Commanders vs Chiefs odds have the Chiefs as -700 moneyline favorites and Commanders as +500 underdogs. The over/under is 48.5 points (-105o / -115u). The Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites on the spread over the Commanders at most sportsbooks (Chiefs -10.5; -115).
Below, you can find Commanders vs Chiefs picks for Monday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, game total and props for Marcus Mariota and Brashard Smith, plus a long-shot anytime touchdown parlay.
Commanders vs Chiefs Props & Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Commanders vs Chiefs Odds, Lines
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +500 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -700 |
Monday Night Football odds via DraftKings
Commanders vs Chiefs Against the Spread Prediction
The Chiefs have not historically been a team to win with margin as big favorites despite all of their success.
However, I believe they are in a good spot to keep things rolling tonight against a Commanders team that is dealing with multiple key injuries.
Clearly, Washington would not be as big of a underdog if Jayden Daniels were leading them into Arrowhead.
Marcus Mariota will be without the benefit of a consistent running game. I have generally been impressed with rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt, but over the last two weeks, he has averaged just 3.1 yards per rush.
Things won’t be any easier Monday night as the Kansas City rush defense is rounding into form. Last week, Ashton Jeanty averaged 3.5 yards per carry and the week prior Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 3.8 yards per rush against the Chiefs' front seven.
Most importantly, the Commanders defense will be without their best pass rusher in Dorance Armstrong, who led their defense with 22 pressures and six sacks this season before his injury.
With the Commanders already ranking last in the league in yards per pass allowed at 8.3 yards per attempt, they simply could not afford to lose such an integral piece right before they are tasked with facing the red-hot Patrick Mahomes.
Things will snowball in this game and the Chiefs will separate as their offense will continue to thrive at home.
Pick: Chiefs -10 (-115); bet to -12.5
Commanders vs Chiefs Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The Monday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Commanders had the makings of a battle between two of the league’s most exciting quarterbacks, but instead, we get Patrick Mahomes against Marcus Mariota since Jayden Daniels is out with a hamstring injury.
However, Mariota is a more than capable backup, with the Commanders scoring 27 points against the Falcons and 41 against the Raiders in his two complete games so far this season. Both of those defenses rank similarly as Kansas City by DVOA, so they serve as a reasonable proxy for what they should be able to accomplish tonight.
Especially considering he only had Terry McLaurin for about half of the Raiders game and none against the Falcons.
McLaurin, and Deebo Samuel, are both fully healthy for the first time in a while, giving the Commanders' passing attack some juice.
On the other side, the Chiefs looked like the Chiefs of old over the past few weeks now that they finally have some weapons for Patrick Mahomes.
They’ve scored at least 28 points in every game since Xavier Worthy returned to action, and now also have Rashee Rice off suspension. Given their production over the last few weeks, I don’t expect the Commanders' middling defense to stop them.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-110)
Brashard Smith Player Props: Rushing Yards
Betting rookie player props can be tricky as it's difficult to pinpoint when they’ll breakout. There’s usually a low point in the market, and PRO Projections suggest now may be the time to buy Chiefs running back Brashard Smith.
Specifically, in-house models show value in picking Smith to go over 8.5 rushing yards tonight vs. the Commanders. Advanced projections powered by our experts predict Smith to rack up about 13 yards on the ground.
Smith’s athleticism is a perfect fit in Andy Reid’s offense. Despite just getting started in his first season, his speed and play-making ability should get him more run as the season progresses.
Smith's behind Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt on the depth chart. However, it appears it’s Smith’s backfield if Kansas City gets a lead — last week, Smith toted the rock 14 times on the way to a 31-0 Chiefs blowout.
With the Chiefs positioned as 11.5-point home favorites, Smith’s in a great spot for another increased workload.
Pick: Brashard Smith Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Marcus Mariota Player Props: Rushing Yards
Marcus Mariota has played in three games this season and has averaged over 30 rushing yards per game. In his two starts last season, he rushed for 34 and 56 yards.
The Commanders will likely be trailing in this game as heavy underdogs, which could lead to more dropbacks and more scrambles for Mariota.
Additionally, the best way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground, so I expect to see a few designed runs for Mariota.
This number feels a bit light given how good Mariota has been on the ground throughout his career.
Pick: Marcus Mariota Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-110); bet to Over 29.5
Anytime Touchdown Parlay
Marcus Mariota Anytime Touchdown (+340)
By Sean Koerner
I'm going to go with Marcus Mariota.
The returns of Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel should help the Commanders get into more red-zone situations, which is where Mariota usually looks to use his mobility. I love the value we're getting here.
Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown (+170)
I'm going with Xavier Worthy mainly because of the defensive shift from last week's game against the Raiders to tonight's game against the Commanders, who play way more man coverage.
Washington utilizes man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL; Worthy has a higher target share against man and his lone touchdown this season has come against this type of defense.
Worthy is also deployed in the red zone — as a rusher and a receiver — quite a bit, which gives him a variety of ways to potentially score.
Brashard Smith Anytime Touchdown (+260)
By Chris Raybon
Speaking of man coverage, Brashard Smith is actually who the Chiefs go to when they want to beat man.
Smith is a threat for an explosive score here, but he's also been playing more in the red zone just as one of the three running backs in the Chiefs' rotation. And we saw Kareem Hunt not play all of the goal-line red-zone snaps last week. I know he got hurt early in the game, but he did come back in.
I think it's a good sign for Smith that he's seeing more action in general — and with the spread around Chiefs -11, it increases the likelihood of more playing time in the event of a blowout/garbage time.
This parlay was given out on The Action Network's Week 8 Touchdown Show
Pick: Anytime Touchdown Parlay — Marcus Mariota, Xavier Worthy, Brashard Smith (+4700)
