The Chicago Bears (1-0-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) face off in NFL Preseason Week 3 on Friday, Aug. 22. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game will broadcast live on NFL+.
The Bears are 2.5-point favorites on the spread with the over/under set at 42.5. Chicago is a -142 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Kansas City is +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bears vs Chiefs predictions and NFL preseason pick for Friday night.
Bears vs Chiefs Odds, Lines
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -142 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
Bears vs Chiefs Preview, Prediction
Albeit for only a short amount of time, we will get to see a showdown between two of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL would look like.
Patrick Mahomes and Caleb Williams get the start on Friday night in Kansas City, and I believe both their head coaches are looking for the same thing — a productive drive early to hang their hat on so they can remove their star player from the lineup. The uncertainty has created a difficult handicap on the side, but pivoting to the total and betting on points being scored is where the value lies.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has a history of playing Mahomes in the preseason, and he has also shown the ability to make it a quick night at the office for his best player at the first sign of positivity.
Mahomes threw one pass for a single yard and a touchdown in his only appearance this exhibition season. The three-time Super Bowl champion has usually delivered his team a fast start on the scoreboard in these scenarios, and he will have the benefit of facing a Bears defense missing a few key pieces. Veteran defensive tackle Grady Jarrett will get the night off, as will both starting cornerbacks, Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson.
Mahomes’ counterpart, Williams, will get his second consecutive preseason start under the tutelage of Ben Johnson. Overreacting to a couple of drives before the regular season isn’t usually advised, but it is already abundantly clear the influence Johnson has had on his quarterback.
Williams carved up the Bills’ secondary a week ago by diagnosing coverage much quicker and getting the ball out of his hands with haste. Johnson is a mastermind at creating advantageous matchups and openings. This ultimately leads to his signal caller playing in rhythm and with confidence.
This is the same formula Johnson used to resurrect the career of Jared Goff, and it’s exactly the type of coaching Williams needs at this stage of his career.
Williams accounted for 107 passing yards, but the team as a whole racked up 528 yards of offense on 6.4 yards per play. Both Tyson Bagent and Austin Reed finished with passer ratings above 100; the three passers combined to average 9.4 yards per pass attempt.
We cannot make a determination on Johnson’s success for many months, but it’s promising that the Bears have scored 62 points through two games despite Williams only playing two drives.
Chris Jones and many of the Chiefs’ starting defensive players will also take the field to begin the game Friday night, but I don’t expect them to be in the lineup for an extended look. This is a defense lacking depth, and the decisions at the positions below are crucial.
In fact, injuries to some of their key players on defense would be devastating moving forward.
Saying the Chiefs’ second- and third-team defensive units played poorly last week would be an understatement. The Seahawks racked up 477 yards of offense against Kansas City, and it wasn’t anything fancy that caused problems for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs' front seven was dominated at the line of scrimmage, giving up 268 rushing yards on 48 carries. I don’t see any reason why the Bears can’t replicate that type of success, especially considering the Kansas City defense will see an even heavier dose of play-action, mainly from the experienced Bagent.
Bears vs Chiefs Prediction, Betting Analysis
This game features the highest total of the NFL slate this weekend.
Oddsmakers are taking notice of just how little resistance the Chiefs’ backup defenders are providing. Kansas City has allowed teams to complete 74% passes through two games, and it obviously struggled badly to stop the run.
Overs have been hitting at a historic rate this preseason thus far, and I expect this trend to continue on Friday night.
My Pick: Over 41.5 (via ESPNBet)
Spread
I won't be making any bet on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm also staying away from either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
My pick is for this game to go over the total.
Bears vs Chiefs Betting Trends
Bears vs Chiefs Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium |
| Date: | Friday, August 22 |
| Time: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | NFL+ |
