The New England Patriots (14-3) host the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) tonight in an AFC Wild Card showdown. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Chargers vs Patriots will broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites on the spread (Patriots -3.5; -115), with the over/under set at 45.5. New England is a -192 favorite on the moneyline, while Los Angeles is +164 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Chargers vs Patriots picks, which include Wild Card predictions for the spread and three player props, including two anytime touchdown scorers.
Chargers vs Patriots Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chargers vs Patriots Odds
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +164 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -192 |
NFL odds for the Wild Card Round via bet365
Chargers vs Patriots Spread Prediction
I am already on record labeling the Patriots as the best value to win the Super Bowl at +1000, and I believe they will make a statement tonight.
Led by MVP candidate Drake Maye, the Patriots finished as the second-best offense in the NFL in yards per play — the Chargers finished 21st.
The Chargers mustered 14.7 points per game in their four road games since losing Joe Alt to injury. Yes, one of those games Justin Herbert rested, but it is indicative of the supporting cast Herbert has to elevate if they are going to have a chance in pulling the upset. Los Angeles averaged just 4.6 yards per play since the injury to Alt in week 9.
The Patriots’ pass rush is not elite, but it did improve as the season progressed, ranking 13th in pressure rate over the back half of the regular season. With Herbert taking 54 sacks this year — with a sack rate north of 10% with Alt out of the lineup — New England’s surging pass rush should be able to get home.
The Chargers defense uses two-high safety looks predominantly in order to limit big-play potential for the opposing offense, but I still do not believe it will be enough to slow down the hyper-efficient Maye.
Furthermore, quarterback running lanes have consistently opened up against the Chargers defense this season as they are content sitting back in coverage. No quarterback in the playoffs was credited with more rushing yards on scrambles than Maye this season.
New England is averaging 31.6 points per game over its last eight contests. I like the Patriots' chances to continue to roll along here as they win with margin.
By Billy Ward
I believe the Patriots are the best team in the AFC, which makes it somewhat surprising that they’re only favored by 3.5 points against the Chargers.
The Chargers aren’t bad exactly; they’re just a deeply flawed team with one of the worst offensive lines in football due to injuries. They’ve been able to cover that up throughout much of the regular season with solid defense and a heavy reliance (compared to last season) on the run game – but that won’t be so easy against the Patriots.
New England averaged the second-most points in the NFL in the regular season, and ranked sixth in adjusted line yards – both of which will force the Chargers to the air. While the Patriots aren’t great defensively against the pass, they’re good enough to put pressure on Justin Herbert and force some mistakes.
While I don’t love laying the hook past a key number of three, I expect the Patriots to win easily enough that it doesn’t come into play.
Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-105)
TreVeyon Henderson Props
By Chris Prince
While the Chargers have been mostly solid against the run this season — and even with Rhamondre Stevenson also getting a ton of work — this number for TreVeyon Henderson feels a bit light to me.
Henderson has topped this number in nine of his last 10 games, with the only miss being the game against Baltimore when he left early. Henderson also has the upside to break a long run at any point, and the Chargers have allowed 108.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks.
With the Patriots as 3.5-point home favorites, I expect them to trust the ball security of Henderson (who has just one fumble this season) if the game is tight, and his workload has been solid to close the season, with 13+ carries in seven of his last 10 games.
Pick: TreVeyon Henderson Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Anytime TD Long-Shot Pick
DeMario Douglas hasn't scored in a bit, and he isn't terribly involved in the offense, but these odds are too high.
With Mack Hollins out, Douglas should see a few more snaps, and he's a threat to score from anywhere on the field.
I have the true odds here around +500, making this a worthy long-shot anytime touchdown pick.
Pick: DeMario Douglas Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+700)
Chargers vs Patriots Anytime TD Prediction
My favorite anytime touchdown bet for this game is on a quarterback — and it isn't Drake Maye.
Looking at touchdowns alone, you wouldn't be too impressed by Justin Herbert, who had two rushing TDs in the regular season. Howver, he's willing and able on the ground, finishing fourth among all quarterbacks in total scrambles. Herbert also set a career high in rush attempts this year (83).
The injury Herbert suffered to his left (non-throwing) hand hasn't deterred him either — he’s averaging nearly seven carries per game over four games.
Given the stakes, Herbert’s athleticism, the poor state of the Chargers' offensive line, and the odds, this is a great spot to invest in Herbert.
Pick: Justin Herbert Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+550)
