We have four Ravens vs. Bills picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4, which might be the best primetime matchup of the season. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, with the game airing on TV on NBC and streaming live on Peacock.
On one side, you have the Buffalo Bills (3-0). Buffalo has run through its competition this season with an NFL-best scoring differential of +64 points, as Josh Allen is installed as an early favorite to win his first NFL MVP Award. Then there's Baltimore. The Ravens (1-2) and Lamar Jackson finally got in the win column last week against the Cowboys 28-25 after hard-luck losses to the Chiefs and Raiders to start the season.
The Bills are consensus 2.5-point favorites over the Ravens (Bills -2.5) on the spread, with Buffalo -135 to win outright and Baltimore +115 to pull off the slight upset. The over/under is currently 46.5 points.
We have bets on the spread and total, as well as two player props for tonight's big-time AFC clash. Here are our NFL predictions and Sunday Night Football best bets for Bills vs. Ravens.
Ravens vs. Bills Picks, Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sunday Night Football Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
- Ravens vs. Bills spread: Ravens -2.5
- Ravens vs. Bills over/under: 46.5 points scored
- Ravens vs. Bills moneyline: Ravens -135, Bills +115
Billy Ward's Pick Against the Spread
By Billy Ward
The Buffalo Bills are one of five remaining undefeated teams (at least heading into Week 4) and haven’t played an especially close game yet. They’ve yet to trail a game in the fourth quarter, and lead the league in scoring with a ridiculous 37.3 points per game.
And yet, they’re slight underdogs against the 1-2 Ravens, whose only win was a three-point victory against the Dallas Cowboys that they almost coughed up in the fourth quarter.
I’m having a hard time justifying that line for Baltimore, who outside of reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson are a fairly mediocre team.
This game being in Baltimore is part of the reason they’re favored, but I’m not sure the old fashioned rule of thumb (home field advantage is worth three points to the spread) is really true anymore.
I’d take Buffalo in a pick ‘em here, so getting an extra 2.5 points is icing on the cake.
Pick: Bills +2.5
John LanFranca's Over/Under Pick
This total is too low for the top two offenses in the NFL, according to DVOA. Both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are nearly impossible to sack, and both offensive lines are protecting them well. These are also the top two teams in the league in sacks allowed this season, both rank top five in turnovers and yards per play, and Buffalo ranks second in red-zone efficiency.
The Ravens' defense is vulnerable. They have had trouble generating pressure, ranking 29th in pressure rate at 26.7%. Nearly 24% of all plays against this defense have gained 10 or more yards, which puts them as a bottom-three defense in that category. There are not many defenses I'd feel confident in siding with when it comes to possibly limiting Allen, and the Ravens are not playing at a level in which they win this game with their defense.
The Buffalo defense has been solid through three weeks, but they still rank 22nd on third-downs and have been one of the most zone-heavy defenses in football. Avoiding playing man against Jackson may sound like a good idea in theory so that defenders aren't turning their back and losing vision on Lamar, but the numbers show something entirely different. Jackson is the league's highest rated passer against zone coverage thus far in 2024, averaging 9.9 yards per pass attempt.
The Bills are going to pick their poison on defense Sunday night, which has me betting on a high-scoring affair rather than picking a side.
Pick: Over 46.5 (-110)
Grant Neiffer's Touchdown Scorer Prop
I don't love the matchup, but the anytime touchdown odds for James Cook are too good considering his role. The Bills have been a run-first team all season long, and Cook has been the go-to back. He has four touchdowns in the last two games and has been the focal point in this offense.
I have Cook at just below a 50% chance of scoring, making this a great bet at plus odds.
Pick: James Cook Anytime TD Scorer (+135)
SNF Player Prop Pick
Josh Allen is coming off a great game, but he now gets a matchup against the Ravens, a team with one of the best defenses in the league. The days of the Bills passing heavily are gone, and they are now running a much slower and more conservative offense.
Allen threw a season-high 30 times last week, and I'm not expecting that again after throwing the ball 19 and 23 times the first two weeks. I have Allen projected for nearly 20 yards under this number, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 233.5 Passing Yards (-114)
