The Eagles (8-3) host the Bears (8-3) for the NFL Black Friday Game. Kickoff from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pa., is set for 3 p.m. ET. Bears vs Eagles will broadcast on Prime Video.
Bears vs Eagles odds list the Eagles as -350 moneyline favorites and Bears +280 underdogs. The game total is 43.5 points. The Eagles are 7-point favorites on the spread (Eagles -7; -115).
Below, you can find Bears vs Eagles picks and Black Friday best bets, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, Bears team total and props for Caleb Williams (pass attempts) and A.J. Brown (receiving yards).
Bears vs Eagles Picks & Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bears vs Eagles Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
NFL Black Friday Game odds via Fanatics
Bears vs Eagles Against the Spread Prediction
I am expecting the defending Super Bowl champs to make a statement in front of a national audience today after what was an embarrassing defeat in Dallas. I am not willing to say the Bears' 8-3 record is fraudulent — but this is a good spot to fade them.
Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams may be the toast of the town right now, but their offensive numbers are a bit inflated. Over their last nine games, the best defense the Bears have faced is the 15th-ranked Pittsburgh defense, according to DVOA. Despite playing a relatively easy slate of defensive opponents, Williams has completed over 60% of his passes just twice during that stretch.
The Bears lead the league in turnover differential at +16, but it’s unlikely this trend will continue against an Eagles offense that has turned the ball over on a league-low 4.3% of their possessions.
The Chicago defense has allowed 2.7 points per drive on the road this year, the worst mark in the NFL. The Bears could be getting back some key pieces on defense in the secondary, but it’s the rush defense that is unlikely to hold up against Philadelphia. The Bears allow 5.1 yards per carry (30th in the league) and 4.7 adjusted line yards per rush (28th).
The Eagles' ground game will find success early, putting points on the board and forcing Williams and company into catch-up mode. The difference here from other close wins by the Bears is that Williams has not faced a defense of this level this season.
Pick: Eagles -7 (-110)
Bears vs Eagles Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
Temperatures in the low 40s with wind gusts around 25 mph aren't the worst possible conditions for football by any stretch, but it’s certainly enough to have an impact.
That’s the forecast in Philadelphia, where the Eagles host their third NFC North opponent in their last four games.
This time it’s the Bears, who have become one of the better offenses in the league this season thanks to a heavy dose of trickery and aggressive playcalling from Ben Johnson.
The Lions managed just nine points two weeks ago in similar conditions in Philadelphia, with the wind contributing to a missed extra point from Detroit, and both teams passing up on field goal opportunities they probably would’ve tried in better weather.
The Eagles offense hasn’t been able to top 21 points in a month, despite getting a dream setup against the Cowboys in Dallas last week. While the Bears defense isn’t great, it’s certainly better than the Cowboys,’ which makes it hard to see big scores coming from either side in this one.
The total has already dropped two points from its opening mark, but I have no problem taking the 44.5 lines available now. However, if it continues to dip, I wouldn’t take it beyond 44.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-110); bet to 44
Editor's Note: This line has moved to 43.5 at most sportsbooks.
Bears vs Eagles Team Total Pick
Right now, everyone's big on the Eagles defense. They shut down the Packers and the Lions, but then they played the Cowboys and gave up 500 yards of offense.
Dallas killed Philly with play-action plays specifically; the Eagles have been bad against play action all year and that has been Ben Johnson's bread and butter.
The Bears run the second-most play action in the NFL and are top 10 in EPA per play. The Eagles also play very heavy light boxes; that is what Vic Fangio wants to do — try to get you to beat him that way, but that is where the Bears are at their best. They are top five in EPA per play running the ball and I've talked about how much Chicago's run game has improved since the bye week. The offensive line is especially playing really well.
The Bears have scored 19 or more points all but once this season. I just trust Johnson to find the answers in this spot.
Pick: Bears Team Total Over 17.5 (-105)
Caleb Williams Props: Pass Completions
By Derek Carty
THE BLITZ is forecasting 16.24 completions for Caleb Williams, compared to 19.28 completions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here.
If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 79% of the time, resulting in a 44% ROI. Williams has had 19 or fewer completions in 6-of-11 games this season.
Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $53.18. This play is good down to at least -217.
Pick: Caleb Williams Under 19.5 Completions (-120; bet to -217)
A.J. Brown Player Props: Receiving Yards
By Nick Galaida
A.J. Brown was force-fed targets against the Lions and Cowboys in the last two games (21 targets overall), which resulted in 159 yards on 15 receptions. We could see some negative regression for him against Chicago though, with star CB Jaylon Johnson scheduled to return.
Brown is also much better against man coverage than zone coverage – the Bears have played two of their three lowest rates of man coverage in their last couple of games.
If the Eagles are playing from in front (they are 7-point favorites), it’s possible that they take a ground-and-pound approach, limiting Brown’s opportunities through the air.
There are a number of ways in which Brown could stay under this number.
Pick: A.J. Brown Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
