The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in the New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans on Tuesday, Dec. 23. Kickoff is set for 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Southern Miss is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. After opening as a favorite, Western Kentucky has moved to a +1.5 underdog and is now +100 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 59 total points.
Here’s my Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, December 23.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles Predictions, Pick
- Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss Pick: 1H Under 30
My Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky best bet is on both teams to go under the first-half total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss Odds, Line
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 59 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 59 -110o / -110u | -140 |
- Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss Point Spread: Southern Miss -2.5, Western Kentucky +2.5
- Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss Total: 59 Total Points
- Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss ML: Southern Miss ML -140, Western Kentucky ML +120
Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss Preview
When Western Kentucky Has the Ball
WKU comes in off a disappointing close to its regular season.
The Hilltoppers lost a close 13-10 game at LSU and followed that up with a disappointing road loss to Jacksonville State, the latter keeping WKU out of the CUSA Championship game.
Head coach Tyson Helton has his team in a bowl game for the eighth straight season, and the Toppers have shown up ready to go more often than not. This should be a fun game.
Offensively, WKU made a switch at quarterback after Maverick McIvor endured some midseason struggles. Freshman Rodney Tisdale Jr. has thrown the ball well and adds a bit more mobility behind center.
This passing offense wants to air it out, but the Tops have leaned on the ground game more this season.
Running backs Marvis Parrish and La’Vell Wright have combined to run for 971 yards and 10 combined rushing touchdowns.
Wide receivers Matthew Henry and KD Hutchinson are deep threats on the outside, and they'll have a great matchup lining up against the Southern Miss cornerbacks.
Defensively, WKU struggled most of the season in stopping the run and generating negative plays.
The front has been gashed most of the way, allowing 5.1 yards per carry while recording only 16 sacks this season.
Southern Miss struggled at times with negative plays, and if Western Kentucky can get home and create some pressure, it will have a great chance to win this game.
When Southern Miss Has the Ball
Southern Miss comes into its bowl game disappointed with how the 2025 season concluded. The Golden Eagles lost their last three games and failed to reach the conference title game, a seemingly assured task halfway through November.
Charles Huff has vacated his position as head coach and is off to Memphis, leaving offensive coordinator Blake Anderson to be the permanent head coach going forward.
While this will be deemed a successful season for Southern Miss, expectations rose throughout the season. No matter what happens in this bowl game, this bunch will walk away from 2025 thinking “What if?"
The offense is led by electrifying quarterback Braylon Braxton, who has thrown for 2,796 yards with 23 passing touchdowns.
The Eagles have run the ball a fair amount despite not having an overly explosive ground attack. Jeffery Pittman and Matt Jones have nearly 1,000 combined rushing yards with 12 rushing scores. I expect this offense to run the ball against this WKU defensive front.
The offense should be fairly intact, as we don't have a ton of opt-out news, but left tackle Blake Bustard was injured and missed the season finale.
Defensively, Southern Miss improved tremendously as many players followed Huff from Marshall in the offseason. The stop unit was good at limiting explosive plays, and the front generated 26 sacks.
I expect this front to get after WKU in this matchup while limiting explosive pass plays. This unit has something to prove after three subpar efforts to close out the regular season.
Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss College Football Pick, Best Bet
This line opened at Western Kentucky -3 and was bet up to -5, but has seen action come back the other way. The Tops now come into the game as -1.5 favorites with a total that has steamed up to 58.5. I'm going to target the first-half under here.
Anderson is a veteran head coach, and I expect this Southern Miss team to play hard for the guy who's going to be sticking around and coaching the team next year.
Braxton should play well in this spot, but I could see the Golden Eagles running the ball more in this one to exploit Western Kentucky's poor run defense.
This Southern Miss offense did struggle at times with posting explosive plays, so I expect their drives to be methodical in nature. We should see the Eagles move the ball, but the drives are going to take time. And if they keep it on the ground, we could see a fast-moving clock in the first half.
Tisdale is going to have to have his best stuff here, as the Southern Miss secondary leads the FBS with 21 interceptions this season.
I could see Tisdale getting a bit rattled by the pressure here and making a key mistake early before he settles into this game. I expect Southern Miss to win the line of scrimmage and create enough Havoc to stall WKU's drives early.
Pick: 1H Under 30 (Play to 28.5)
